Showing posts with label threat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label threat. Show all posts

Friday, February 01, 2019

SELF AWARE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE? COMING SOON TO A ROBOT NEAR YOU

"Open the pod bay doors, HAL."
"I'm sorry, Dave. I'm afraid I can't do that."

This classic exchange from Stanley Kubrick's masterpiece, 2001: A Space Odyssey, epitomizes the risks of a self-aware artificial intelligence.

 Looking through the eye of HAL 9000
a scene from 2001: A Space Odyssey
Credit: Wikimedia

 People who tell us not to worry about the existential threat of super-smart artificial intelligence or Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) often argue that however brilliant AI agents--such as deep learning programs or autonomous robots--become at specific tasks, they'll inevitably lack the general, all-purpose kind of intelligence  humans have. Without that high-level understanding of oneself, the world, and one's place in it, those soothing voices say, AI is and will remain a safe and helpful technology; just another tool like a laptop or a smartphone.

I'd like to believe in the lovely AI-enhanced future AI enthusiasts envision, but I keep coming across flaws in their shiny picture. One, that just came to my attention today, is that robots are becoming self aware. That brings them one step closer to becoming truly autonomous agents, not just eager-to-please tools with a Swiss-Army-knife-full of potentially superhuman skills, but entities with minds and goals of their own, like HAL.

 Robot arm with developing self image overlay
Credit: Robert Kwiatkowski/Columbia Engineering

The latest research along this line comes from Hod Lipson, director of the Creative Machines Lab at Columbia University and graduate student Robert Kwiatkowski. They built an articulated robot arm with four degrees of freedom, allowing it to rotate, bend and grasp in a huge number of different ways. The arm was controlled by a deep-learning computer network. Deep learning networks mimic the human brain in being able to learn from experience, and are the basis of many of today's most powerful AI applications, such as Google's AlphaZero, which in the course of just one day of "play" became the world champion in chess, Shogi and Go.

Initially the arm's deep learning network--in effect its brain--had no idea of the size, shape or structure of the arm, nor of the ways it could move. However, much like a baby babbling as it learns to speak, the system made thousands of random motions from which it gradually created an accurate internal model of itself. What looks like a distorted shadow in the picture above is an overlay of the arm's model of itself early in its learning process. After 35 hours of practice, the system developed a very accurate self model. In the picture below, you can see how closely the shadowy overlay tracks the actual arm.


Robot arm with nearly perfect self image
Credit Kwiatkowski et al.

 You can watch a video of the robot "babbling" in order to create its self image at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHisJi3ZBeo.

Once the robot arm's brain had an accurate self image, it could very quickly learn how to perform any number of specific tasks. In the video above, you can watch the arm pick up balls and place them in a container, and also print words.

And, much like a person learning to perform a familiar task under unusual circumstances, for example eating with one arm in a cast, the robot rapidly modified its self image when the experimenters substituted a longer, bent piece for one segment of the arm.

Until now, the authors explain, human programmers had to spell out a robot's size, shape, and potential movements in order for it to function. “But if we want robots to become independent, to adapt quickly to scenarios unforeseen by their creators," says Lipson, "then it’s essential that they learn to simulate themselves."

The researchers also suspect that having a self image able to plan and execute a multiplicity of tasks may represent a crucial step in human development. "We believe that this separation of self and task may also have been the origin of self awareness in humans," they write.

It may seem like a long way from a robot arm generating an accurate self image to a high-functioning, seemingly self aware AI like HAL. However, the pace of development in AI is dazzlingly fast and only getting faster. It may not take many iterations before Siri or your Google Assistant isn't just a chatty interface with an amazing collection of knowledge and skills, but a self aware entity, potentially with a mind of its own.

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You can read the paper by Lipson and Kwiatkowsky  here.

For a more in-depth assessment of the risks of AI, here's a recent report.

And for an earlier zerospinzone commentary on the subject, click here.

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Wednesday, April 25, 2018

WHAT "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN" REALLY MEANS

I finally get it. To use the current phrase, I'm "woke." I've come to understand what Trump and his supporters mean when they shout "Make America Great Again!"

I've been confused since I first started seeing MAGA on signs and baseball caps and hearing the chant. What Trump was selling--fear, anger, belligerence, racism, xenophobia--didn't seem great to me. But something obviously resonated with his fans.

To me, great is the superlative of good. When I think of something great, it evokes images of the best of something positive, creative, constructive, beautiful; Usain Bolt is a great sprinter, the Beatles were a great band, Moby Dick is a great novel, Casablanca a great movie. You get the idea.

But what I've come to realize is that to Trump and his friends great has a very different meaning. Synonyms would be powerful, dominant, commanding, controlling, top dog, boss. To him and them, a great nation doesn't have to be democratic, just, equitable, prosperous, peaceful, inspiring, sustainable or anything else good. It just needs to be powerful--ready, willing and able to throw its weight around. The biggest, meanest bully on the block.

You can read a succinct and frightening corroboration of this from some Trump associates here.

So when Trump tweets, "Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and 'smart,'" his supporters love it. He's demonstrating his and, by reflection, their dominance.

Or for another data point, check out this list of despots and dictators whom Trump admires.

Or this tweet:

"North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just stated that the “Nuclear Button is on his desk at all times.” Will someone from his depleted and food starved regime please inform him that I too have a Nuclear Button, but it is a much bigger & more powerful one than his, and my Button works!"

I get it. Our nukes are bigger and more powerful than yours. MAGA!

Credit: R.J. ORIEZ/U.S. AIR FORCE PHOTO

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Trump outdid himself with his latest MAGA tweet to Iran:




To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS!









Wednesday, December 20, 2017

WELCOME ABOARD THE TITANIC

I'm not sure which of Trump's never-ending stream of tweets, fiats, provocations, sadistic put-downs and flip-flopping decisions finally gave me that unmistakable sinking feeling. But I think it was the announcement in his National Security Speech of December 18, that he is cutting climate change out of America's national security strategy. This marks a major shift away from the Obama administration's security strategy, which recognized climate change as one of the major risks facing the nation and the world, and put international cooperation to minimize that threat high on the national security to-do list. As Trump said in his speech, “We are charting a new and very different course.”

 "Full speed ahead"--The RMS Titanic--the greatest ship of its day
Credit:  F.G.O. Stuart/Wikimedia Commons

It's been clear for a long time that climate-change denial has been the price of admission to the current Republican Party regardless of the real-world consequences. A saving grace, however, has been that the US Department of Defense and the intelligence agencies responsible for the security of the nation have generally resisted this politically convenient untruth and have made plans and deployed resources in response to such “risk or threat multipliers” as “livelihood devastation, state fragility, human displacement, and mass death,” not to mention extreme weather, coastal flooding, environmental degradation, threats to infrastructure, forced migration, and what James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence characterized as “unpredictable instability”caused by climate change.

Now, thanks to Trump, and as reflected in the accompanying 55-page document, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, by choice and design, climate change and its impacts are not to be found. Instead, there's a lot of focus on accelerated economic growth, bigger and better armaments, “fairer” trade and “energy dominance,” all of which, in the absence of a recognition of climate change and environmental degradation and destabilization, will only increase the threats and impacts we will be encountering.

This stance is all too reminiscent of the first (and last) voyage of the RMS Titanic, the greatest ship of its day, carrying the cream of international society as well as hundreds of ordinary people, and believed at the time to be unsinkable. Despite warnings from other ships about sea ice, Captain Edward Smith ordered the Titanic to steam full speed ahead through the north Atlantic night.

Everyone knows the result—nature in the form of an iceberg proved mightier than the great ship; the "unsinkable" vessel sank at 5:18 in the morning of April 15, 1912, and 1500 lives were lost, including that of Captain Smith himself. The Titanic, broken in two, is now slowly disintegrating 12,415 feet beneath the Atlantic.

The bow of the Titanic, in the depths of the North Atlantic
Credit: NOAA/ University of Rhode Island

Like the 2,224 souls aboard the Titanic on that ill-starred night, we are now shoveling on the coal and steaming full speed ahead across a treacherous sea with our captain and crew willfully blind to one of the gravest risks we face. That's making it a bit hard for me to just sit back and enjoy the glittering company, the fine food and drink, and theband's lovely music. I can't get the image of the dark, icy waters just ahead out of my mind.

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Wednesday, May 31, 2017

SYRIA, NICARAGUA AND US--CLIMATE-CHANGE BUDDIES

The company we keep

If Donald Trump follows through on his threats to take the United States out of the Paris Climate Accord, it will put the US in the same basket as just two other countries. On the issue of saving the world from anthropogenic climate disruption, we will stand shoulder to shoulder with Syria and Nicaragua versus 194 other nations--the rest of the world.

Syria is a fractured, war-torn country of 17 million people with a per-capita GDP somewhere between $2800 and $5000 per year, led by its dictatorial president, Bashar al-Assad. More than 6 million of its citizens have been internally displaced or have fled as refugees. Because of its ongoing civil war and international sanctions, Syria was "in no position" to commit to climate-related goals.

Bashar al-Assad
Credit: Wikipedia

Nicaragua is an equally impoverished country, one of the poorest in the Americas, whose 6 million citizens generate somewhere between $2200 and $5700 per year in GDP, and are led by dictatorial president Daniel Ortega. Due to instability, poverty and crime, it's also the source of thousands of refugees, most of whom flee south to Costa Rica. Ortega refused to sign the Paris Accord because he wanted it to be binding and enforceable.

Daniel Ortega
Credit: Wikipedia

And then there's us, and our president.

Donald Trump
Credit: Wikipedia

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