Monday, June 05, 2017

GO WIND, YOUNG MEN AND WOMEN

In 1865, American author and editor Horace Greeley cribbed an earlier journalist's phrase and famously wrote, "Go West, young man . . . go West and grow up with the country."

The same advice could certainly be given today with respect not to the long-closed American Frontier, but to the worldwide, opportunity-filled frontier of renewable energy--energy from the wind, the sun, the tides and other natural, non-polluting sources.

Workers prepare to hoist the blades of a giant wind turbine
Credit: National Wind Technology Center/energy.gov

In the first three months of 2017, a new wind turbine was commissioned every 2.4 hours somewhere in the US. Not surprisingly, that kind of growth requires lots of workers. The US wind industry employed 51,000 people in 2013 and doubled to 102,000 just three years later. Writing in Inside Climate News, journalist Paul Horn notes that just the growth in wind-industry employment in those three years equals the total employment in the US coal industry.

Solar energy is another area enjoying explosive employment growth--17 times the national employment growth rate, according to the same source. Solar energy now employs more than 260,000 people in the US, up 82 percent over the past three years.

According to the Environmental and Energy Study Institute, the US renewable energy sector as a whole employed nearly 3.4 million workers at the end of 2016. That's more than all the jobs in the entire fossil-fuel sector, and is grew an astonishing 18 percent between 2015 and 2016.

And all those jobs are producing remarkable results. The US Department of Energy reports that just under 20% of US electricity came from renewables in 2016, pretty much wiping out all predictions.

To borrow a term popularized by Newt Gingrich, it's pathetic to compare renewable energy to the moribund coal industry that President Trump promises to resuscitate. In the US, coal has shed 60,000 jobs over the last five years. (However, and kudos to Trump, it will gain 70 to 100 jobs when the Acosta Coal Mine, in Pennsylvania, opens on June 8. So revise that to minus 59,900.

Business Insider points out that the growth in clean energy in the US is part of a worldwide explosion in renewable energy, a tidal wave of change that now seems inevitable now that the cost of clean renewable energy has fallen below that of polluting, climate-threatening fossil fuels. Even with President Trump and EPA head Pruitt trying to return the US to the carboniferous era, the economics will win out.

Business Insider quotes Liz Delaney, Program Director at EDF Climate Corps, who concludes:

"Our findings would lead us to believe that the right place to invest dollars are in renewable energy rather than fossil fuels," Delaney says. "These jobs are widely geographically distributed, they're high paying, they apply to both manufacturing and professional workers, and there are a lot of them."

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Friday, June 02, 2017

WANT TO SAVE 52,000 AMERICAN LIVES PER YEAR? REPLACE COAL WITH SOLAR!

Burning coal is a dirty business.  A new study makes it clear just how dirty it is, and how many lives could be saved by generating our electricity from the sun instead.

Coal-fired power plant
(CC0 Public Domain)

In research published in the peer-reviewed journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, materials engineer Joshua Pearce and energy policy specialist Emily Prehoda quantify the number of American lives lost every year from respiratory, cardiac and other illnesses caused by pollution from burning coal. It turns out to be a shocking 52,000 lives. That's more than the number killed in car crashes (about 35,000 in recent years) and by firearms (around 12,000 per year) combined.

Pearce and Prehoda arrived at their estimate by comparing coal burning and mortality rates geographically. They found a strong correlation between rates of illness and death and proximity to coal-fired electrical plants. On average, they calculated, there's one additional death from the production of 25 million kilowatt-hours of electricity from coal. Across the US, that means that 52,000 people die every year from coal-caused air pollution.

The researchers point out that with current off-the-shelf technologies, we could generate all the electricity we need from the sun. They also examine the potential health risks from manufacturing and transporting solar panels. These turn out to be a minute fraction of the risks from coal.

It's of course true that replacing all the electricity currently generated by burning coal with solar energy would be a costly investment--about $1,000,000 for every life saved.

However, the authors point out, that doesn't count the economic value of the electricity generated. In many regions, solar energy is already cheaper than electricity from coal or other fossil fuels, and the price of solar energy is continuing to fall rapidly. (Note: wind power is even cheaper). When the monetary savings from generating our power from solar rather than coal are factored in, in most cases switching to solar saves money as well as lives.

"Unlike other public health investments, you get more than lives saved," says Pearce. "In addition to saving lives, solar is producing electricity, which has economic value."

The bottom line--the sooner and faster we make the transition from coal and other fossil fuels to solar and other renewable energy sources the better, for our health, our lives, and our pocketbooks.

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Thursday, June 01, 2017

FRENCH PRESIDENT MACRON--"MAKE OUR PLANET GREAT AGAIN!"

Macron invites American scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs concerned about climate change to "come and work with us."

The youthful and forward-looking President of France, Emmanuel Macron, hit the nail on the head with his comments in response to President Trump's decision to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement on climate.

French President Emmanuel Macron
Credit: Wikimedia Commons

“To all scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, responsible citizens who were disappointed by the decision of the president of the United States, I want to say that they will find in France a second homeland,” he said. “I call on them: come and work here with us. To work together on concrete solutions for our climate, our environment. I can assure you, France will not give up the fight.”
. . .

"We will succeed because we are fully committed," he said. "Because wherever we live, whoever we are, we all share the same responsibility. Make our planet great again!"

You can see Macron's comments on YouTube (in English) here.

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TRUMP PULLS US OUT OF PARIS CLIMATE ACCORD--WHO'S LAUGHING NOW?

I just watched the White House Rose Garden presentation in which Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris Accord.

Trump cast the withdrawal from the long-sought and almost universally applauded international climate agreement as saving the United States, its economy and its workers from an unfair, costly, "draconian" and "onerous" compact that would give away our money, our sovereignty and our potential for economic growth to greedy foreign countries that consistently out-bargain us, exploit us and laugh at us at the same time.

"We want fair treatment," Trump declared. "We don't want other countries and their leaders laughing at us, and they won't be." 

A lot of people may be crying over the repercussions of this decision, now and far into the future. But way to go, Mr. President; nobody is laughing.*

Trump withdraws US from Paris Accord, 6/1/17
Credit: UPI


*Except perhaps Steve BannonScott Pruitt and Vladimir Putin.

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GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE ASTRONOMY TAKES OFF WITH THIRD DETECTION OF MERGING BLACK HOLES

Researchers at LIGO, the Laser Interferometry Gravitational-Wave Observatory, announced today their third detection of space-time vibrations from the collision of of a pair of black holes, in this case nearly three billion light-years from Earth.

In terms of mass, this new black hole merger--which created a black hole with a mass 49 times heavier than our Sun--fell neatly between the two earlier detections, in September and December of 2015. Those two cosmic crashes resulted in black holes with 62 and 21 times the Sun's mass respectively, and took place much closer to Earth.

The current crash was between black holes with estimated masses of 31.2 and 19.4  times that of the Sun. That means that a mass equal to two Suns was converted into gravitational waves in a fraction of a second as the two black holes completed their death spiral.

Simulated black-hole merger
Credit: LIGO Lab Caltech

This third detection tells the scientists that the unique new window on the cosmos provided by gravitational-wave detectors is now wide open. With improved sensitivity of LIGO's existing laser interferometers and the addition later this year of a third detector, called Virgo, the researchers hope to be able to detect black hole mergers and other space-time-shaking events on a daily basis.

Aerial view of the Virgo interferometer near Pisa, Italy
Credit: The Virgo Consortium

Besides further proof of the existence of black holes in this mass range, the detection allowed researchers to test one of the predictions of Einstein's General Relativity--that gravitational waves travel through space at the same speed regardless of their frequency. Once again, General Relativity passed the test.

“It is remarkable that humans can put together a story, and test it, for such strange and extreme events that took place billions of years ago and billions of light-years distant from us," says MIT's David Shoemaker, LIGO's spokesperson.

The number of black holes in this mass range raises the intriguing possibility that they may at least partly explain dark matter, which is known to exist because of its gravitational effects on galaxies and galaxy clusters, but whose nature remains mysterious.

"There's this intriguing indication that with the size of black holes, 10-100 solar masses, in about the quantity that we see them or expect to see them, might account for dark matter," says LIGO researcher Mike Landry. "It's not impossible."

For the first time, researchers were able to suss out information about how the black holes were spinning before they collided. It's more likely than not that the black holes were not spinning in the same plane as their orbit. That, in turn, implies that they may have formed far apart and only later fell into each other's gravitational thrall.

As gravitational-wave astronomers detect more of these incredibly powerful cosmic events, and gain the ability to match them with observations using visible light, infrared, X-rays and gamma rays, astrophysicists, nuclear physicists and cosmologists all expect exciting new findings that will cast light on black holes, neutron stars, dark matter and the nature of space-time itself.

The new findings appear in this week's edition of Physical Review Letters.

You can view some great video simulations at LIGO's YouTube channel.

You can become a citizen scientist helping to sift actual gravitational-wave signals from the noise by participating in GravitySpy or Einstein@Home.

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Wednesday, May 31, 2017

SYRIA, NICARAGUA AND US--CLIMATE-CHANGE BUDDIES

The company we keep

If Donald Trump follows through on his threats to take the United States out of the Paris Climate Accord, it will put the US in the same basket as just two other countries. On the issue of saving the world from anthropogenic climate disruption, we will stand shoulder to shoulder with Syria and Nicaragua versus 194 other nations--the rest of the world.

Syria is a fractured, war-torn country of 17 million people with a per-capita GDP somewhere between $2800 and $5000 per year, led by its dictatorial president, Bashar al-Assad. More than 6 million of its citizens have been internally displaced or have fled as refugees. Because of its ongoing civil war and international sanctions, Syria was "in no position" to commit to climate-related goals.

Bashar al-Assad
Credit: Wikipedia

Nicaragua is an equally impoverished country, one of the poorest in the Americas, whose 6 million citizens generate somewhere between $2200 and $5700 per year in GDP, and are led by dictatorial president Daniel Ortega. Due to instability, poverty and crime, it's also the source of thousands of refugees, most of whom flee south to Costa Rica. Ortega refused to sign the Paris Accord because he wanted it to be binding and enforceable.

Daniel Ortega
Credit: Wikipedia

And then there's us, and our president.

Donald Trump
Credit: Wikipedia

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Friday, May 19, 2017

L'ETAT C'EST MOI--TRUMP'S IDENTITY PROBLEM

“I believe it hurts our country terribly, because it shows we’re a divided, mixed-up, not-unified country. And we have very important things to be doing right now, whether it’s trade deals, whether it’s military, whether it’s stopping nuclear – all of the things that we discussed today. And I think this shows a very divided country."

-----President Trump, commenting on the appointment of a special counsel to investigate Russian interference in the U.S. elections

"I have absolute right to do what I want to do with the Justice Department."

-----From Trump's interview with the New York Times, 12/28/17 

If someone is a narcissist, it's all about him or her. Narcissists are notorious for having no boundaries--you're cast for a role in their drama whether you want to be or not.

One corollary is that if you've done something that reflects well on them, for the moment you're their best friend; but if you've done something that fails to feed their ego, or worse yet, threatens it, you're instantly their enemy.*

Another corollary is that they can't ever be wrong; so if something goes wrong, it's always someone else's fault.

It's safe to assume that to a narcissistic ruler, there are no boundaries between himself and his realm. The poster child for this, at least until now, has been Louis XIV of France. He's famous for proclaiming, "L'etat? L'etat c'est moi,"--"The State? I am the State."

Louis XIV of France--The Sun King in full regalia
Author: Hyacinth Rigaud
Musee du Louvre
It's no secret that our current president has the same proclivity. From his point of view, it's his country, his military, his secrets to share or withhold as he wishes, his realm to do with as he pleases. The Constitution, the rule of law, checks and balances, Congress and the courts are irrelevancies that had best get out of his way.

There's no doubt that the appointment of Robert Mueller as Special Counsel is bad news for Donald Trump, and as Mueller's investigation develops, it may well hurt Trump terribly.

However, given his narcissism, it's not surprising that he experiences this threat to himself and his presidency as a threat to the nation. It's also predictable that as he experiences further ego-threatening narcissistic injuries, he will be driven to strike out in narcissistic rage at his enemies, actual and perceived.

Angry Trump caricature
adapted from Gage Skidmore's Flickr photosteam
by DonkeyHotey
In relationships, the targets of narcissistic rage are often advised to walk away, then later try to define and defend the boundaries of what they will or will not take. Unfortunately, none of us here in the U.S. or the rest of the world can just walk away from a wounded and enraged President with the ability to lash out within the country or abroad with the full power of the state.

Still, even if Trump can't tell the difference between himself and "our country," we can. Because it truly is our country, not his.

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For an analysis of the implication ofTrump's narcissism from the point of view of a neurolinguist, you can navigate to an excellent post by George Lakoff at this URL.

*Click here for a Yale psychiatrist's discussion of this pattern, and its impact on Trump's followers and on the nation as a whole.

And here for a more detailed disucussion of this problem as of 9/15/19 by professor Steve Hochstadt.

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Friday, May 05, 2017

DONALD TRUMP AND JABBA THE HUTT -- WHAT DO YOU THINK?



Trump gloating after passage of AHCA
Credit: New York Daily News
Jabba the Hutt gloating as always
Credit: Wookieepedia


 It's not just an accident,
Photo Credit: Unknown



It goes to character.

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Thursday, May 04, 2017

REX TILLERSON STRAIGHTENS US OUT ON AMERICAN VALUES VS AMERICA'S ACTIONS

On May 3, Secretary of State and ex-CEO of EXXON Rex Tillerson gave a speech to assembled State Department staff to interpret for them what President Trump's "America first" slogan means in practice.

Rex Tillerson, 2009
Credit: William Munoz

Tillerson led off with a few comments about "our fundamental values."

"I think it’s important to also remember that guiding all of our foreign policy actions are our fundamental values: our values around freedom, human dignity, the way people are treated. Those are our values."

I suppose he could have added a few more "values around," ideals such as equality and unalienable rights, including to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, but fine, at least he mentioned a few of the values that have in fact made America great.

Unfortunately, in his very next sentence he puts those values high up on a shelf where they can look good but can't cause any trouble:

"Those are not our policies; they’re values. And the reason it’s important, I think, to keep that well understood is policies can change. They do change. They should change. Policies change to adapt to the – our values never change. They’re constant throughout all of this."

The rest of his talk is about our policies--what we actually try to advance in the real world. According to Tillerson, they boil down to two--security and profit:

"And so we really have to understand, in each country or each region of the world that we’re dealing with, what are our national security interests, what are our economic prosperity interests . . ."

or again:

"So I give you that as kind of an overarching view of how I think about the President’s approach of 'America first.' We must secure the nation. We must protect our people. We must protect our borders. We must protect our ability to be that voice of our values now and forevermore. And we can only do that with economic prosperity. So it’s foreign policy projected with a strong ability to enforce the protection of our freedoms with a strong military."

What a great arrangement. We can have our high ideals and laudable values. We can pride ourselves on them and hold them up as examples for others to follow. But first and foremost we must "protect our ability to be that voice of our values" by projecting them with our strong military and making sure that the whole enterprise is profitable.

Despite the high-minded rhetoric, it seems to me that a person's or a nation's actions pretty much define their values. If I lie, cheat and steal, those are my values. If I abuse my wife, my kids, my students, clients or employees, those are my values. If we start preemptive wars, we value starting wars. If we kidnap people and keep them locked in Guantanamo for decades without trial, we value that. If we torture, we value that. If we kill hundreds or thousands with bombs or drones, we value that. If we close our borders to those most in need of sanctuary, we value that. Our actions, not our words, are the "voice of our values."

For a slightly different take on Trump and Tillerson's policies, which the author describes as "vulgar realism," click here.

If Tillerson as Secretary of State, or Trump as President, or we as a nation want to practice realpolitik--or as Ludwig von Rochau described it, the law of power--so be it. That's how most countries, and especially empires, act.

Let's just not wrap our iron fist and grasping hand in the Declaration of Independence so that we can pretend to be what we palpably are not.

Note: As of August 1, 2017, a new State Department mission statement is being drafted that clearly lays out Tillerson's new vision. Gone is the aim of fostering "a peaceful, prosperous, just and democratic world . . . for the benefit of the American people and people everywhere." As promised, the new focus is on "the security, prosperity and interests of the American people globally . . .."

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Tuesday, May 02, 2017

QUICK UPDATE ON POLIO ERADICATION PROGRESS -- WE'RE SO CLOSE

Followers of this blog know that I'm fascinated by the international effort to eradicate polio. Wiping out this paralyzing, often deadly disease will be one of humankind's great accomplishments. The only other human disease that we've been able to eradicate is smallpox--the last spontaneous case was in 1977.

According to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, the effort is incredibly close to success, with just 5 cases reported worldwide this year, to May 24 (vs. 16 this time last year). In the early 1950s, before the Salk and Sabin vaccines were introduced, 15,000 children died or were paralyzed by the poliovirus every year just in the United States, 500,000 worldwide.

It's taken decades of dedicated, sometimes dangerous work by scientists, international organizations, and on-the-ground health providers to reduce that number from 500,000 to 5. The goal now is to shrink it to zero.

It appears that the polio virus now survives in just a few locations--the 5 cases all occurred in Pakistan and Afghanistan, destabilized by war and refugees. In addition, all 5 cases were caused by Wild Polio Virus 1 (WPV1), meaning that the other two strains of wild polio virus, WPV 2 and 3, may already be eradicated.

Wild Polio Virus Type 3
Credit: Manuel Almagro Rivas/CreativeCommons

Massive vaccination programs of at-risk children and adults are continuing, and will need to to continue for some time even after there are no more documented cases.

We're so close . . .

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COULD $82 MILLION HELP EXPLAIN WHY THE US CONGRESS IS FULL OF CLIMATE-CHANGE DENIERS?

American author Upton Sinclair once quipped, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it."

Pump "salary" up to $82 million in contributions from the fossil fuel industry to climate-change deniers in the US Senate and House of Representatives, and you can start to understand why so many of the people we've elected to represent us spout so much nonsense about climate change.

$ 1 Million on display in Las Vegas
(multiply this by 82 and give to your favorite politicians)
Credit: mmarchin/CreativeCommons

According to Ryan Koronowsky at ThinkProgress, there are 180 climate deniers in the US Congress, not to mention the one in the oval office. Of those, 142 are in the House and 38 in the Senate. That represents a hefty 59 percent of the Republicans in the House, and a truly impressive 73 percent of the Republicans in the Senate. Remarkable figures given that the American public overwhelmingly recognizes that human-caused climate change is real and supports government action to mitigate it.

It appears that something is causing our senators and representatives to oppose not just the scientific consensus on climate change but the desires of their own constituents. It could be superior intelligence, greater knowledge or perhaps a more highly developed sense of responsibility and stewardship.

Or it could be money. Money that pays for the market research and ads that keep getting them elected.

What do you think?

Me, I'm betting on the money.

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Here's a list of who and how much.

You can read Koronowsky's detailed article, with maps and charts, here.

You can read an interesting piece about parallels between the Soviet embrace of Lysenkoism under Stalin and the Republican embrace of climate change denial here.

Note: To be fair, Democrats are probably just as likely to be "influenced" by contributions. This essay by Lauren McCauley at Common Dreams presents data showing that for a mere $100,000, the odds of a Democrat representative flipping on a key financial regulation issue rose by 14 percent. With millions or billions of dollars of profits at stake, political contributions are clearly a terrific investment.

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Saturday, April 29, 2017

NEW ZEALAND'S ANSWER TO CITIZENS UNITED--GRANTING PERSONHOOD TO A RIVER

In January, 2010, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that corporations have the same constitutionally guaranteed free-speech rights as actual human beings. That infamous Citizens United ruling unleashed torrents of money that have distorted the electoral process and has given corporations and wealthy individuals even more control over U.S. politics. It certainly was influential in giving us President Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress.

In March, 2017, New Zealand took a very different step. Its parliament passed the Te Awa Tupua or Whanganui River Claims Settlement bill, which granted the Whanganui River legal personhood--the first time in the history of the world that this has been done. Chris Finlayson, the government official who helped negotiate the new law, announced that the river now has " . . . all the corresponding rights, duties and liabilities of a legal person."

In effect, the river now owns itself. It has innate rights and intrinsic value, and, through the people who have traditionally lived along it and relied on it for their livelihood, the Whanganui Iwi Maori, it can defend those rights in court.

The Whanganui River on the North Island of New Zealand
It runs for 180 miles from Mount Tongariro to the Tasman Sea
Credit: James Shook/Wikimedia

Within a week, a high court in northern India granted similar legal personhood to two rivers, the Ganga and the Yumana.

The Ganga River flowing through the Himalayas
Credit: Asdelhi95/Creative Commons
Just as we could not foresee all of he implications and ramifications of the Citizens United decision, we don't know what impacts granting human status and rights to rivers or other parts of nature will have. However, we can hope that this is just the start of a worldwide movement, and that not only rivers, but wetlands, forests, mountains, seashores, lakes, seas, the ocean, the atmosphere, or perhaps even Earth herself will gain personhood and legal rights.

This may be the first sign of a much-needed radical change in our relationship with nature. Now (6/3/17) a third country--Colombia--has granted similar rights to a river, in this case the Atrato River, which has long been a toxic dump for illegal mining wastes.

2/28/19:  The city of Toledo Ohio has just passed legislation giving long-suffering Lake Erie personhood rights, and allowing individuals, organizations or the city to sue or take other legal actions on its behalf. You can read about it here.

And a lawsuit has been filed in Federal District Court in Colorado to recognize the Colorado River and its ecosystem as a person.

Maybe Mother Nature will soon be more than a figure of speech, but instead an actual being with legal standing and guaranteed rights. I don't think that many corporations will like that--especially those that rely on wealth extracted from nature or benefit from dumping waste products back into nature--but at least Earth will be able to fight back on a level playing field.

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Thursday, April 27, 2017

BLOWIN' IN THE WIND--WIND POWER NOW EMPLOYS 102,000 AMERICANS, POWERS 24 MILLION HOMES

Wind power is is soaring worldwide, and the U.S. is no exception. The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) just published its annual report, with great news for anyone who loves clean, renewable energy, and the jobs it produces.

Green Mountain Wind Farm near Fluvanna, Texas
Credit: Leaflet/Wikimedia Commons

A few of the milestones reached in 2016:

--15,000 new jobs, bringing the total U.S. wind-power employment to 102,000. Compare that to the 50,500 employed in coal mining at the end of 2016, down from 70,000 in 2003 to get a sense of which way the wind is blowing. And, points out Tom Kiernan, the CEO of  AWEA, since 99% of wind farms are located in rural areas, they are providing jobs and land-leasing income where they are most needed.

--Even though hydropower has been a key part of the U.S. energy system since the early 1900s, windpower edged it out in 2016, and now accounts for 5.5% of the electric power generated in the U.S.

--That's enough to power 24 million homes.

--Wind power is especially important across the midwest--both in terms of energy production and jobs. Wind accounts for between one-fifth and one-third of power production in 7 great-plains states. You can get a sense of this below:


Source: https://stateimpact.npr.org/oklahoma/2014/12/

--The wind power industry is also boosting much-needed manufacturing jobs, especially in the rust belt. More than 25,000 men and women are working in 500 U.S. factories manufacturing parts for the giant wind turbines that are harvesting wind energy more and more efficiently.

--Even without subsidies, in many areas of the United States and the rest of the world, wind power is now the cheapest way to generate electricity.

This news is another great example of how moving to a sustainable energy system as fast as possible is a win-win solution for people and the planet.

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Wednesday, April 26, 2017

FIRST AMERICANS MAY HAVE ARRIVED 130,000 YEARS AGO--TEN TIMES EARLIER THAN WE THOUGHT

Most archaeologists believe that the first Americans arrived no more than 14,500 years ago, as the waning ice age opened up overland and coastal routes from Eurasia into North and South America.

It's true that over the years,  researchers have excavated multiple sites from Pennsylvania to Brazil that have pointed to an earlier human presence in the New World, perhaps 20,000 to 50,000 years ago.  But all of those finds have drawn intense criticism by mainstream archaeologists, and have been effectively sidelined.

Today however, a team of paleontologists, geologists and archaeologists writing in the prestigious journal Nature, present evidence pushing the first human presence in the Americas back by close to a factor of ten, to between 120,000 and 140,000 years ago.

"This discovery is rewriting our understanding of when humans reached the New World," says  Judy Gradwohl, President and CEO of the San Diego Natural History Museum, whose team of paleontologists led by Richard Cerutti first studied the site, located along the route of a freeway in southwest San Diego, California.

"It's a very urban area now," says Thomas Deméré, also at the Natural History Museum, "but 130,000 years ago it was a meandering stream close to sea level, with camels, horses, ground sloths, capybara and deer--probably a very nice place to live."

130,000 year old mastodon bones
and possible stone tools, in situ
Credit: Holen et al./Nature

The core of the evidence consists of two clusters of fossilized teeth and bones of a single mastodon that, according to the researchers, show clear signs of having been smashed open by humans using stones as hammers and anvils. In addition to the shattered bones and teeth, the "smoking guns" are five hefty stones found among the bones--hammerstones that still bear impact marks from their use at the site, with flakes knocked off by the blows nearby. Tellingly, the mastodon's ribs, which would have been broken by geological forces, are still intact, while the extremely tough, marrow-containing long bones were cracked open.

Possible hammerstone wielded 130,000 years ago
Credit: Holen, et al./Nature

To verify that the marks they found on the stones and bones were caused by humans rather than by animals or geological processes, the team used similar stone hammers and anvils to smash open fresh elephant bones. "We found the same fracture patterns," said Steven Holen, a paleontologist at the San Diego Natural History Museum and the paper's lead author. "It reproduced what we saw at the Cerutti site." [Note: the researchers experimented on the bones of already-deceased elephants; no animals were harmed in their experiments.]

The research team used state-of-the-art uranium-thorium dating to determine that the bones were buried 131,000 plus-or-minus 9,400 years ago. This high-tech technique was what finally allowed them to definitively date the bones.

Since anatomically modern humans are not thought to have left Africa until around 100,000 years ago, just who these extremely early Americans might have been remains an open question. The authors speculate that they may have been a far-flung branch of Homo erectus, the mysterious Denisovians, or even Neanderthals. "The simple answer is that we don't know," says Richard Fullagar, at the University of Wollongong, in New South Wales, Australia.

Still, he adds, assemblies of stone hammers and anvils along with similarly smashed bones occur in archaeological sites in Africa dating back up to 1.5 million years, and in Europe to 350,000 years ago. Cracking open the long bones of large animals to extract marrow or make tools has been part of the repertoire of many human ancestors.

Although the research team carried out an extremely careful and detailed study of this site and its artifacts--a 24-year research odyssey that has been validated by the publication of their work in Nature--only time will tell if their conclusions will hold up in the face of the withering scrutiny they will no doubt encounter. In science, extraordinary new understandings require extraordinary proof, and setting back the date when the first humans reached the Americas by a staggering 115,000 years is certainly extraordinary.

The researchers know that their groundbreaking findings will be highly controversial, but believe that they have dotted every i and crossed every t. "It's taken a very long time to get to this stage," says Fullagar. But now, he says, "we have enormous confidence in the evidence we've put together. It's truly incontrovertible."

Incontrovertible or not, it's already eliciting great skepticism on the part of many archaeologists, for whom one isolated site with no actual human remains simply isn't sufficient to overturn the current 15,000-year-old first entry date. However, a study published just one day later in the equally prestigious journal Science, may offer the possibility of a definitive proof.

A team of geneticists, archaeologists and paleontologists at the Max Planck Institute of Evolutionary Anthropology, in Leipzig, Germany report being able to recover Pleistocene-era Neanderthal and Denisovian DNA, along with DNA from various animals, from the sediments of caves occupied or visited by ancient humans, even though no bones or other human remains were found. I won't go into more detail here, since this story has been heavily covered elsewhere. You can see what the New York Times had to say about it here.

If the same technique can be used on materials from the Cerutti site, it could pin down a revolutionary claim that otherwise is likely to remain at best controversial.

The Nature article by Steven Holen and colleagues can be found here.

You can view a YouTube video about this discovery at this URL.

And click here for video of the team's elephant-bone-breaking experiment.

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Tuesday, April 18, 2017

AMERICA’S ‘FORGOTTEN WAR’ -- KOREA 1950-1953

The costly lessons of America’s ‘Forgotten War’ are being ignored once again.

Two thirds of a century ago, American lack of understanding of complex Asian realities coupled with a large dose of military hubris embroiled the country in a Korean conflict which nearly escalated into a nuclear-enabled World War III.

Responding to a reckless North Korean attempt to reunify the artificially divided peninsula by force, President Truman, with United Nations backing, authorized Far Eastern Commander, General Douglas MacArthur, to defend the South and drive the attackers back across the 38th Parallel. MacArthur’s brilliant Inchon landing succeeded in beating back the intruders, liberating Seoul and re-establishing a pro-Western government in the South.

General Douglas MacArthur
Public Domain-author unknown

Encouraged by his victories, however, MacArthur pushed well beyond his orders and pressed the attack northward with the goal of destroying the Northern armies and defeating the Communist-dominated State. The effect of his actions, while aimed at reunifying the peninsula in America’s favor, also directly challenged the newly-established Red Chinese government by threatening military action up to and potentially beyond the Chinese border in Manchuria.

Ignoring Chinese warnings as well as overt directions from more cautious diplomatic and military leaders in Washington, MacArthur’s miscalculation triggered the surprising and overwhelming Communist Chinese response which led to an additional three years of costly and bloody land warfare in Asia leading the death of more than 36,000 U.S. soldiers—ending with the uneasy stalemate which has existed for nearly 65 years at the same 38th Parallel where the conflict began.

Bodies of U.S., U.K., and ROK soldiers 
before mass burial at Koto-ri,1950 
(Photo by Sgt. F. C. Kerr)

Currently, a newly energized American leader, without foreign policy experience and with a tendency to make provocative and aggressive statements ("if China won’t help, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A”) and also led by generals is currently convinced that the show of and possible use of overwhelming military force, rather than diplomacy, will succeed in defanging the rhetorically aggressive and now nuclear-armed North. In the process, it runs the risk of pushing the ever more paranoid leadership in Pyongyang toward a point of no return where the slightest miscalculation, a missile test gone astray, a nuclear test, a misreading of intentions, may trigger unintended and disastrous military results.

Once again U.S. leadership is relying on the tenuous belief that China, Russia or others will not intervene—even if the United States acts unilaterally to destroy the North’s capacity to employ weapons of mass destruction-- or that unanticipated events in a newly-destabilized region will not widen the conflict well beyond Korea.

While analysts have been comparing theevolving conflict to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, a much more apt comparison should be that of Korea in 1950 and 1951, when an ambitious and arrogant General blundered into a world of trouble neither he nor the American people ever fully expected or understood.

Les Adler, Ph.D.
Professor Emeritus of History and Interdisciplinary Studies
Sonoma State University

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Saturday, April 15, 2017

THE BASIC PHYSICS BEHIND GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE HAS BEEN KNOWN FOR MORE THAN A CENTURY

Just a quick link to a great piece by engineering professor John Abraham entitled, "150 Years Ago, Scientists Understood the Climate Better than the EPA Head Does Today."

Here's the URL to click on.

It's worth reading the whole article, in which Abraham vividly reminds us that climate-change deniers such as Scott Pruitt, the current head of the EPA, are basically living in the 1800s, at least as far as their acceptance of the basic science of Earth's radiation balance, the greenhouse effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide and water vapor, and the impact of increased greenhouse gases on Earth's climate, all of which were well known before the turn of the century on New Year's Eve, 1899!

The basic science behind climate change was understood before this car hit the road
Credit: National Motor Museum

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DARK MATTER FILAMENTS LINK GALAXIES INTO A COSMIC WEB

Scientists still don't know what dark matter is, although there appears to be five times more of it than of normal, visible matter, and cosmologists believe that it has played a crucial role in the evolution of the universe.

Since it doesn't interact with light or other electromagnetic radiation, and barely if at all with normal matter except through gravity, it's not surprising that it's proven excruciatingly hard to detect. A long series of increasingly sensitive experiments have narrowed the range of possible targets, but so far have failed to find actual dark matter particles.

Now, researchers at the University of Waterloo, in Ontario, Canada, have confirmed one of the key predictions of how dark matter should act by imaging for the first time strands or bridges of dark matter linking neighboring galaxies.

Dark matter filaments bridge the space between galaxies in this false colour map. The locations of bright galaxies are shown by the white regions and the presence of a dark matter filament bridging the galaxies is shown in red. Credit: S. Epps & M. Hudson / University of Waterloo

Astronomer Michael Hudson and graduate student Seth Epps detected the dark matter bridges through the gravitational lensing effect they had on the light coming from even-more-distant galaxies. The image above combines the observations of 23,000 galaxy pairs, which allowed the researchers to detect the dark matter filaments with a high degree of statistical certainty.

“For decades, researchers have been predicting the existence of dark-matter filaments between galaxies that act like a web-like superstructure connecting galaxies together,” said Hudson. “This image moves us beyond predictions to something we can see and measure.”

Their work proves the prediction that rather than isolated "island universes," galaxies and even larger galaxy clusters are like beads of condensation on an invisible cosmic web of dark matter.

Beads of water on a spider's web
https://goo.gl/images/RJO6Xe

You can find the original paper here.

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Sunday, April 09, 2017

GREAT SCOT! IN MARCH, WIND POWER ALONE EXCEEDED THE NEEDS OF EVERY HOME IN SCOTLAND

While the U.S. government remains mired in climate-change denial, and hopes to boost employment by deregulating the moribund coal-mining industry, other countries are forging into the future by boosting their alternative-energy infrastructure.

One such success story is Scotland, part of the United Kingdom and home to 5.3 million people. In March, their rapidly growing wind farms generated more than 1.2 million megawatt-hours of electricity, enough to power all 2.4 million Scottish households with plenty of energy left over. At a current value of around 100 British Pounds ($123 dollars) per megawatt hour, that wind-produced, carbon-free power was worth about $150 million dollars.

Scottish windfarm
Credit: Rosser1954-English Wikipedia

It's well known that the alternative energy industry produces a lot of jobs, so it's not surprising that the wind power industry has put thousands of Scots to work, along with millions worldwide.

It's also striking how quickly a country can increase its capacity to generate alternative energy. The figures for March, 2017 in Scotland represent an 81% increase over March of 2016.

Lang Banks, the director of WWF in Scotland, summarizes:

“As well as helping to power our homes and businesses, wind power supports thousands of jobs and continues to play an important role in Scotland’s efforts to address global climate change by avoiding millions of tonnes of carbon emissions every year.”

So let me get this straight. An entire country can generate all the power it needs, at a competitive price, put a lot of people to work, maintain a very high standard of living and help protect all of us from climate disruption.  Sounds like a win-win solution to me.

At the same time, our current leader doesn't like the way wind turbines look, has put a climate-change denier, Scott Pruitt, in charge of the EPA, and another one, Rick Perry, in charge of the Department of Energy. While other countries are rapidly advancing towards what seems to be an inevitable and highly desirable clean-energy future, we seem to be retreating into a coal-and-oil fueled past.

Syncrude Aurora oil sands mine, Canada
Credit: Elias Schewel

What's wrong with this picture?

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Tuesday, April 04, 2017

HOW TO DRILL AND BURN OUR WAY BACK TO THE TRIASSIC

I know that not many of us--and certainly not the President or our representatives in Congress--are thinking past the next vote or at most the next election.

Still, for those who care about the next few generations, here's a heads-up from a trio of earth scientists in the U.S. and the U.K., writing in the prestigious journal Nature Communications.

They warn that if we burn all available fossil fuel reserves within the next few hundred years, the combination of high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and more intense radiation from the sun will turn up the heat to levels not seen on Earth since the Triassic period, 220 million years ago, or perhaps ever.

In case you don't remember the details, the Triassic featured one giant continent called Pangea. The poles were ice-free. It was hot and steamy near the coasts, baking desert inland, and Earth was dominated by the reptilian ancestors of dinosaurs, birds, mammals, and, way in the distance future, us. An interesting place for a quick visit, but not where most of us would want to live.

Postosuchus, a Triassic archosaur
Credit: Dallas Krentzel, Museum of Texas Tech University

Steamy as it was with atmospheric CO2 around 2000 parts per million, it wasn't as hot as it will be by 2250 AD if we've boosted CO2 to that same level. The reason is that the sun is gradually getting hotter. The increase in solar radiation over the course of the past 220 million years means that the combined impact--a dense greenhouse atmosphere and a hotter sun--would push Earth--and anyone still around then--into an unprecedented and unpredictable climate zone.

"Such a scenario," the authors write, "risks subjecting the Earth to a climate forcing that has no apparent geological precedent, for at least the last 420 Myrs [million years]."

So, if the first line of our business-as-usual mantra continues to be "drill, baby, drill," the next line is even more likely to be "burn, baby, burn."

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