CALIFORNIA POWERS AHEAD IN THE FIGHT AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE

We need all the good news we can find these days, and California has just handed us a climate-change bouquet.

On August 28, 2018, the legislature passed a bill that requires 100 percent carbon-free electricity in the state by 2045. This massive change in the way power is produced in or imported to California will keep 70 million metric tons of greenhouse gases from being spewed into the atmosphere every year, equivalent to taking 12 million cars off the road.

California Wind Farm
a rapidly growing source of clean power

Credit: Creative Commons Zero; Max Pixel

If Governor Brown signs the bill into law, as expected, California will become the largest economy in the world to commit to 100% carbon neutral electricity before mid-century. (Yes! Governor Brown signed the bill into law on September 10, 2018).

Of course, much more than this is needed for the world to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and keep global temperatures no more than 1.5 or at most 2.0 degrees C (2.7/3.6 degrees F) above pre-industrial levels. Still, it's a giant step in the right direction, and one that we hope many more states, cities, countries, companies and industries will follow--and the sooner the better.

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You can find the text of California Senate Bill 100 here.

SOME GOOD (CLIMATE) NEWS TO FINISH THE YEAR

AUSTRALIA CAN MEET ITS 2030 PARIS CLIMATE PLEDGE FOR FREE

Australia made a bold pledge when it signed the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement -- to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 26 - 28 percent by 3030. A new study by the Australian National University (ANU) shows that because of the rapidly falling cost of renewable energy, Australia can meet that goal at zero net cost.

 Sundrop Farms, Port Augusta, South Australia

Credit: Sundrop Farms

As anyone who has spent time in Australia knows, the country has abundant solar and wind potential. The ANU researchers note that these renewable energy sources will reach grid parity -- that is, they'll be no more costly than electricity on Australia's current national grid -- by 2020 (and cheaper soon after that). As a result, phasing out existing coal- and gas-fired generating plants and replacing them with renewable sources will actually save money.

Even when the researchers added in the costs of new pumped hydro storage and new long-distance power lines to ensure adequate electricity at night or during low-wind periods, the net cost still turns out to be zero.

Lower level of Tumut 3 Pumped Hydropower Station, NSW, Australia/Credit: CMH at English Wikipedia

“The cost of renewables includes stabilising the electricity grid with energy storage and stronger interstate powerlines to ensure that the grid continues to be reliable,” says Andrew Blakers, at the ANU Research School of Engineering. "Our study shows that we can make the switch to affordable and reliable clean power."

Kudos to Australia for its vision and willingness to move rapidly in this vitally necessary direction. With the cost of renewable energy plummeting worldwide, Australia can serve as a bellwether for the rest of the world.

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FRENCH PRESIDENT MACRON--"MAKE OUR PLANET GREAT AGAIN!"

Macron invites American scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs concerned about climate change to "come and work with us."

The youthful and forward-looking President of France, Emmanuel Macron, hit the nail on the head with his comments in response to President Trump's decision to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement on climate.

French President Emmanuel Macron

Credit: Wikimedia Commons

“To all scientists, engineers, entrepreneurs, responsible citizens who were disappointed by the decision of the president of the United States, I want to say that they will find in France a second homeland,” he said. “I call on them: come and work here with us. To work together on concrete solutions for our climate, our environment. I can assure you, France will not give up the fight.”
. . .

"We will succeed because we are fully committed," he said. "Because wherever we live, whoever we are, we all share the same responsibility. Make our planet great again!"

You can see Macron's comments on YouTube (in English) here.

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TRUMP PULLS US OUT OF PARIS CLIMATE ACCORD--WHO'S LAUGHING NOW?

I just watched the White House Rose Garden presentation in which Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris Accord.

Trump cast the withdrawal from the long-sought and almost universally applauded international climate agreement as saving the United States, its economy and its workers from an unfair, costly, "draconian" and "onerous" compact that would give away our money, our sovereignty and our potential for economic growth to greedy foreign countries that consistently out-bargain us, exploit us and laugh at us at the same time.

"We want fair treatment," Trump declared. "We don't want other countries and their leaders laughing at us, and they won't be." 

A lot of people may be crying over the repercussions of this decision, now and far into the future. But way to go, Mr. President; nobody is laughing.*

Trump withdraws US from Paris Accord, 6/1/17
Credit: UPI

*Except perhaps Steve Bannon, Scott Pruitt and Vladimir Putin.

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SYRIA, NICARAGUA AND US--CLIMATE-CHANGE BUDDIES

The company we keep

If Donald Trump follows through on his threats to take the United States out of the Paris Climate Accord, it will put the US in the same basket as just two other countries. On the issue of saving the world from anthropogenic climate disruption, we will stand shoulder to shoulder with Syria and Nicaragua versus 194 other nations--the rest of the world.

Syria is a fractured, war-torn country of 17 million people with a per-capita GDP somewhere between $2800 and $5000 per year, led by its dictatorial president, Bashar al-Assad. More than 6 million of its citizens have been internally displaced or have fled as refugees. Because of its ongoing civil war and international sanctions, Syria was "in no position" to commit to climate-related goals.

Bashar al-Assad

Credit: Wikipedia

Nicaragua is an equally impoverished country, one of the poorest in the Americas, whose 6 million citizens generate somewhere between $2200 and $5700 per year in GDP, and are led by dictatorial president Daniel Ortega. Due to instability, poverty and crime, it's also the source of thousands of refugees, most of whom flee south to Costa Rica. Ortega refused to sign the Paris Accord because he wanted it to be binding and enforceable.

Daniel Ortega

Credit: Wikipedia

And then there's us, and our president.

Donald Trump

Credit: Wikipedia

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"A HARD RAIN'S A GONNA FALL . . ."

. . . to quote a recent Nobel Prize winner.

We'll no doubt be dealing with the fallout from the election of Donald Trump for many years, if not decades. One of the first, and possibly one of the worst impacts of his presidency may be an about-face by the US concerning greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.

The Paris Climate Agreement may soon be jettisoned by Trump
Credit: UN

Writing in New Scientist, editor Michael Le Page points out that if Trump follows through on his campaign promises, he's likely to derail the fledgling Paris Climate agreement, which will lock the world into at least 3 degrees C of warming, well beyond what scientists tell us is safe.

You can read his commentary here.

And a more in-depth analysis from the Guardian here.

And a piece reaching the same conclusion from the New York Times.

You can read another post about what to expect after Trump's inauguration here.

You get the idea.

DO THE MATH--THE CLIMATE CAN'T TAKE ANY NEW DRILLING OR DIGGING

In the Paris Agreement reached last year, the international community, represented by 195 nations including the U.S., agreed that it's vital to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Centigrade (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial levels. 

Dignitaries celebrating the Paris Agreement, 12/12/15--Credit U.S. Dept. of State

As reported by environmentalist Bill McKibben, writing in the New Republic, the latest calculations show that if we burn the fossil fuels in the mines and wells that already exist, Earth's surface temperature rise will exceed that 2 degree limit.

Open-pit coal mine in Dhanbad, India--Credit Wikipedia

According to these new calculations, adding 800 gigatons (800 billion tons) of CO2 into the atmosphere will push the climate through the 2 degree C. limit. There are 942 gigatons waiting to be extracted from existing mines and wells to be burned. Do the math.

The sobering conclusion is that we can't afford to drill any new oil wells, dig any new coal mines, or open up any more territory for fracking.  If we're serious about controlling global warming, McKibben writes, "we're done expanding the fossil fuel frontier."

The problem is that fossil fuel companies have no intention of abandoning the reserves and leases that are crucial to their future profits--their potential "stranded assets." According to Carbon Tracker, that could amount to some $2 trillion. Two trillion dollars represents a lot of motivation to keep drilling and digging no matter what the environmental and societal costs, and makes investing a few hundred million to influence elections, lawmakers and regulators seem like a pittance.

Still, if we're in the biggest hole ever, as McKibben says, the simple answer is, "stop digging."