HOW TO DRILL AND BURN OUR WAY BACK TO THE TRIASSIC

I know that not many of us--and certainly not the President or our representatives in Congress--are thinking past the next vote or at most the next election.

Still, for those who care about the next few generations, here's a heads-up from a trio of earth scientists in the U.S. and the U.K., writing in the prestigious journal Nature Communications.

They warn that if we burn all available fossil fuel reserves within the next few hundred years, the combination of high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and more intense radiation from the sun will turn up the heat to levels not seen on Earth since the Triassic period, 220 million years ago, or perhaps ever.

In case you don't remember the details, the Triassic featured one giant continent called Pangea. The poles were ice-free. It was hot and steamy near the coasts, baking desert inland, and Earth was dominated by the reptilian ancestors of dinosaurs, birds, mammals, and, way in the distance future, us. An interesting place for a quick visit, but not where most of us would want to live.

Postosuchus, a Triassic archosaur

Credit: Dallas Krentzel, Museum of Texas Tech University

Steamy as it was with atmospheric CO2 around 2000 parts per million, it wasn't as hot as it will be by 2250 AD if we've boosted CO2 to that same level. The reason is that the sun is gradually getting hotter. The increase in solar radiation over the course of the past 220 million years means that the combined impact--a dense greenhouse atmosphere and a hotter sun--would push Earth--and anyone still around then--into an unprecedented and unpredictable climate zone.

"Such a scenario," the authors write, "risks subjecting the Earth to a climate forcing that has no apparent geological precedent, for at least the last 420 Myrs [million years]."

So, if the first line of our business-as-usual mantra continues to be "drill, baby, drill," the next line is even more likely to be "burn, baby, burn."

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DO THE MATH--THE CLIMATE CAN'T TAKE ANY NEW DRILLING OR DIGGING

In the Paris Agreement reached last year, the international community, represented by 195 nations including the U.S., agreed that it's vital to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Centigrade (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial levels. 

Dignitaries celebrating the Paris Agreement, 12/12/15--Credit U.S. Dept. of State

As reported by environmentalist Bill McKibben, writing in the New Republic, the latest calculations show that if we burn the fossil fuels in the mines and wells that already exist, Earth's surface temperature rise will exceed that 2 degree limit.

Open-pit coal mine in Dhanbad, India--Credit Wikipedia

According to these new calculations, adding 800 gigatons (800 billion tons) of CO2 into the atmosphere will push the climate through the 2 degree C. limit. There are 942 gigatons waiting to be extracted from existing mines and wells to be burned. Do the math.

The sobering conclusion is that we can't afford to drill any new oil wells, dig any new coal mines, or open up any more territory for fracking.  If we're serious about controlling global warming, McKibben writes, "we're done expanding the fossil fuel frontier."

The problem is that fossil fuel companies have no intention of abandoning the reserves and leases that are crucial to their future profits--their potential "stranded assets." According to Carbon Tracker, that could amount to some $2 trillion. Two trillion dollars represents a lot of motivation to keep drilling and digging no matter what the environmental and societal costs, and makes investing a few hundred million to influence elections, lawmakers and regulators seem like a pittance.

Still, if we're in the biggest hole ever, as McKibben says, the simple answer is, "stop digging."