Is there a Republican death wish? Check out this link.

In the social sciences it's  rare to see a simple, clear, unequivocal relationship between two variables. People are complex, issues are multi-faceted, categories are often fuzzy, good data hard to come by.

That's what makes the graph in this article from The Daily Kos, "A Simple Actuarial Analysis" so mind-blowing.

The x-axis is the county-by-county percentage of Trump voters in the 2020 election.

The y-axis is the number of Covid deaths per 100,000 residents in those counties between 7/10/21 and 9/7/21.

Please take a look and come to your own conclusion.

US Capitol, January 6, 2021

Credit: Brett Davis/Flickr

WHOSE REALITY WINS?

 With 20,000 troops protecting the District of Columbia and Congress and all 50 states deploying whatever security they can muster to defend their capitols, those of us waiting eagerly for Trump to leave office and for Joe Biden to become President might be able to breathe at least a bit easier in the expectation that the transfer of power will actually take place, although, tragically, far from peacefully.

Whose reality wins?

However, even with Trump out and Biden in the Oval Office, we can by no means relax. Despite the horrendous attack on Congress and democracy--and five dead--followed by what is being characterized as a bi-partisan impeachment, many members of Congress, other influential Republicans throughout the country and right-wing religious leaders continue to inject the Big Lie that Trump won the 2020 election into the supercharged echo chamber of right wing media, where it continues to resonate and radicalize.

It's hard to know how many of those influencers and opinion makers truly believe The Lie and all the evil collusion it implies, nor how many of the 74,000,000 who voted for Trump are fully committed True Believers. One clue is that after all that's happened somewhere between 30 and 40 percent of Americans still approve of Trump as President. Another is that fewer than 10 percent of Republicans think he should be impeached.

What is crystal clear is that being on the Trump team demands total loyalty, certainly not to facts or reason, nor even to a conservative ideology, but to whatever Trump, the only source of Truth--says. It makes little difference what mix of his supporters are passively going along with the mob, play acting, or acting out his revealed Truth; the real-world results are much the same. As DC Metropolitan Police Officer Michael Fanone said about those rioters who intervened to try to keep him from being shot with his own gun, "Thank you, but f___ you for being there."

Right now the Big Lie still demands believing that the election was stolen through vast fraud, that Trump won by a landslide, and that democrats, progressives, RINOs, Vice President Pence and anyone who is not willing to eagerly follow Trump through every twist and turn of his quest for ultimate victory is evil, devoted to the destruction of the United States, and as such, an enemy of the people. That lie is likely to persist and fester for years. But even if it fades, we can be sure a new one will appear.

It's crazy, right? How could anyone believe such nonsense, not even counting the even more bizarre black hole of Q-Anon, nor whatever twisted beliefs about race, religion and White nationhood drive Trump's most militant and violent followers?

Yet crazy or not, whether we choose to recognize it or not, we are now in a war between our reality and theirs. It's beyond the point where patience, logic, facts, science, reality-based media or prestigious influencers can be counted on to win the day. Shots have been fired and blood spilled. The advance guard of an alternate reality has stalked the Capitol hunting traitors and carrying flex cuffs. The Trump flag has flown over Congress. The first gallows has been erected. 

We don't need a Churchill or Roosevelt to tell us that war has been declared. A war not just between progressive and conservative policies, between the talking points of left and right, between the "standard hyperbole" of politicians charging up their bases, or between competing narratives, but between a world that makes sense to most of us and a world that makes sense only within the armed perimeter of what has become a 70-million-strong cult.

Within that cult is a world defined by doublethink, where a fair election must be undone to protect the integrity of elections, where Patriotism requires an attack on the nation's Capitol, where tyranny is defined as unity and resistance to mob rule is divisive. Like the most dangerous cults, it promises power, prestige and salvation for the Righteous and death to feared and hated non-believers and apostates. Be on Team Trump or be damned.

There is a time for patience, empathy and understanding, but not when someone is battering your head in with his flagpole. There are periods during which one can hope that the simple passage of time will soften divisions and heal differences, but not when a crazed mob is crashing through your door. Whether we asked to be or not, chose to be or not, we've all been drafted into a battle not between right and left, nor right and wrong, but between two realities that cannot co-exist. Either Biden won in a fair election or Trump was robbed of the presidency in a treasonous nationwide coup. Either Q is right and the deep-state elite are an international cabal of satanic pedophiles--"baby-killing socialists"--as Pastor Robert Henderson preaches, or not.

Clearly our political, corporate, religious and civic leaders need to make it absolutely clear in speech and action that Biden won and is the legitimate President, and that white nationalism, racism and bigotry are not acceptable. The legal system from the Supreme Court down to police on the street needs to recognize the clear and present danger of domestic terrorism from the right and use all the tools at their disposal to contain and reduce it. The media need to look this threat in the eye and implement ways to limit the ability of hate-driven individuals and groups to organize and radicalize.

Unfortunately, even if all our leaders and institutions step up to their responsibilities, that will not be enough. This battle involves us all. I don't know just where or when you or I will be called to the front, but it will happen. Will it be with a friend, a family member or a stranger trying to get you to drink his or her tainted Kool-Aid? Or with a religious leader, school-board member or local politician arrogantly advancing The Cause? The time to speak up and step up is now, before their reality infects yet more hearts and minds. If not, there will come a tipping point after which you and I will find ourselves living in--or perhaps dying from--their toxic reality.

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REA

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This article first appeared on OpEdNews, 1/19/21.

THE FIRE THIS TIME

January 6, 2021 now joins December 7, 1941 and 9/11/2001 in the dark and ignoble gallery of days of infamy in American history.

Not this time because of a surprise attack by an external enemy raining death from above, but even more dangerously as a foreseeable and virtually predictable uprising from fractures deep within the body politic itself, manipulated by a disturbed leader and tolerated and even encouraged by the political enablers in his own Party.

US Capitol under attack 1/6/21

Credit: Deusche Welle

Donald Trump's insurrection against his own government failed, but what he succeeded in doing in his final days in office was to drag the nation with him down the rabbit-hole of his own troubled psyche, leaving a country shaken to the core and even more deeply confused and divided.

“Madness in great ones must not go unwatched,” Shakespeare warns in Hamlet, knowing well the corrupting influence of power and the frailties of human nature. And despite repeated warnings and unmistakable signs of Trump’s instability, narcissism, sociopathic tendencies and increasingly authoritarian behavior over the past four years, and particularly during the past months, governmental guardians willfully denied the reality of what they were seeing. A reality culminating in the President’s unbalanced and increasingly anti-democratic rhetoric and actions; most recently his absolute refusal to accept or admit an electoral reality verified by governments and courts across the land.

Even now, there are Senators like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, along with craven Congressmen such as Kevin McCarthy, Devin Nunes and more than 100 other Republicans who continue to parrot President Trump’s lies about election-rigging and fraud, defending the indefensible and feeding the miasma of untruth that carried thousands of true-believers, conspiracy theorists, neo-Nazis, Proud Boys, and misguided and blind followers to attack the National Capitol, bringing death and destruction, in an ultimately futile effort to stop the democratic process of ratifying the election.

Unlike “Coxey’s Army” of unemployed workers in 1894 protesting economic inequality or the “Bonus Marchers” of 1932 petitioning for cash payment for their World War I service during the depth of the Great Depression, “Trump’s Army” was no spontaneous movement of desperate citizens for equality or justice. Instead, it was the deliberate creation of a disturbed and amoral President obsessively focused on mobilizing his “base” to pressure Congress by any means necessary to force lawmakers to overturn a democratic election. In short, an undemocratic power-play sustained and enabled by multiple purveyors of his self-serving delusions and unremitting lies: essentially an attempted coup to keep Trump in power and assuage his deeply wounded ego.

“Reality is that which, when you don’t believe in it, doesn’t go away,” the Conservative thinker Peter Viereck once wrote, a statement of particular significance today when denial of the reality of a pandemic has already cost hundreds of thousands of lives, when denial of climate change threatens the future well-being of millions, and when the blindness, incompetence and furious denial of reality by a ‘mad’ king threatens to further undermine both the nation’s political and psychological stability.

Recovery from the trauma of this tragic descent into madness may be possible, but not before an effective truth serum has been developed capable of providing “herd immunity” against the highly-infectious virus of untruth and denial of reality that has characterized Trump and his Era.

Les Adler

January 9, 2021

THE NUMBER OF THE BEAST

Some events cry out for a Biblical context.

A tragic case in point:

A headline from November 9: Lawyers Can't Reunite 666 Seized Migrant Children With Parents . . .

New Testament, Book of Revelation, Chapter 13, Verse 18: Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.

Stephen Miller, architect of Trump's Zero Tolerance program

Credit: Southern Poverty Law Program

A lot of despicable things have happened in the past four years, but one of the most bestial was the heartless separation of children--many under the age of five, some of them infants--from their parents, a pogrom, excuse me, program reportedly pushed by Stephen Miller and implemented by Trump through much of 2017 and 2018. 

Not only were thousands of children and parents torn apart, in many cases this was done without even a paper trail that would allow them ever to be reunited. 

Hence these 666 children orphaned in our name by our government.

This may fit the definition of a crime against humanity. It certainly should earn its perpetrators a punishment of Biblical proportion.

REA

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12/3/20: To add to the cold-blooded malevolence of the separations themselves, it now appears that the Trump administration deliberately withheld crucial information that may let at least some of these families reunite. You can see the details here and here.

FROM HATEFUL WORDS TO HATE CRIMES--NEW RESEARCH SHOWS A CLEAR LINK

As children most of us learned some version of the phrase "sticks and stones may break my bones, but words will never hurt me." That old saw may help some of us shake off unkind words in some circumstances, but new research underlines just the opposite--hateful words on social media can lead to actual hate crimes.

Trump at CPAC, 2013

Credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr

Writing in the Journal of the European Economic Association, co-authors Karsten Müller, at Princeton University, and Carlo Schwarz, at Bocconi University in Milan, Italy, detail links between anti-immigrant and anti-refugee posts on Facebook and violent crimes against those targets, based on events in Germany between January, 2015 and February, 2017.

You can read the details behind their findings in the open-access paper, "Fanning the Flames of Hate: Social Media and Hate Crime."

As presented in the paper, the authors found a significant, nearly linear correlation between the incidence of hate speech on Facebook and actual hate crimes. This was especially clear for municipalities with above average numbers of Facebook followers of Germany's leading anti-immigrant, anti-refugee political party, Alternative für Deutschland (Alternative for Germany, or AfD. (For a striking graph, see page 17 of the paper). 

The authors write, ". . . we find that--during periods of high salience of refugees on right-wing social media--anti-refugee hate crimes increase . . . This correlation is especially pronounced for violent incidents such as assault."

Müller and Schwarz did something very clever in order to go beyond mere correlation and get closer to testing for a causal relationship between hate-filled content on social media and hate crimes. They took advantage of hundreds of local or regional internet outages that took place during the years of the study, outages which temporarily blocked a given area's exposure to hate speech on Facebook. 

It turned out that a local internet outage acted much like turning down a dimmer switch or letting up on the gas pedal of your car--the internet outages cut down the number of hate crimes in the affected areas. The cause-and-effect relationship was made even clearer by the fact that even during periods when anti-immigrant and anti-refugee sentiment and hate crimes were surging throughout the country, those crimes did not increase in regions temporarily without internet access. "Quantitatively, a typical internet disruption fully mediates [breaks] the link between social media and hate crime," the researchers write.

They still caution that the "natural experiment" provided by localized internet outages wasn't quite enough to prove causation. Their interpretation is that the flow of hate speech through media such as Facebook encourages and enables hate crimes and makes them more likely, but is just one of many causes. ". . . we do not claim that social media itself causes crimes against refugees out of thin air. Rather, our argument is that social media can act as a propagating mechanism for hateful sentiments that likely have many fundamental sources." 

Similarly, one could say that stomping on the gas pedal doesn't cause your car to speed up, it just adds fuel to an already-running engine.

Interestingly, the researchers found that the enabling link between hate speech and violent assaults was particularly strong for attacks involving groups of perpetrators. We may have seen just such a link between President Trump's support of or refusal to condemn armed, right-wing and often violent groups and the 13 white nationalists now under indictment for plotting to kidnap and try Governor Whitmer of Michigan. It would be incredibly naive to believe that Trump's words don't encourage such violent groups to act, as testified to by their own comments.

So it looks as though hateful words can and do "propagate" or fuel actual attacks with "sticks and stones," or worse, especially when those words are amplified and echoed on social media and heard again and again by aggrieved individuals brought together by the same media.

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REA

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HOW IS THE US DOING VS COVID-19 COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE WORLD?

 Just a quick note as of Sunday, October 11, 2020.

Credit: geralt/pixabay

The US has 4.25% of the world's population.

To date we've suffered 21.17% of the total recorded cases of Covid-19. That's 7,958,612 documented cases in the US.

But we have a great medical system, so our death rate is much lower, right?

Sorry, but our death rate is almost identical, 20.03% of the total deaths. That's 219,343 Americans who have died from the coronavirus in the nine months since the first documented case, January 20, 2020. That represents an average of 828 covid-19 deaths per day, or almost 5800 per week.

For another comparison, so far documented cases for the whole world equal 4,833 cases per million people. In the US we've chalked up 24,005 cases per million. We've had just under 5 times as many cases per million.

The world as a whole has incurred 139 documented covid-19 deaths per million. The US 662. The US has suffered 4.76 times as many deaths per million.

You can draw your own conclusions as to how we're doing and who's responsible.

Here's my nominee:

THE CORONAVIRUS AS A REALITY CHECK

To paraphrase a quote usually attributed to Abraham Lincoln:

You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool a virus.

                                                     The coronavirus--"It is what it is."

                        Credit: NIAID

As historian Yuval Noah Harari brilliantly explains in Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, it's our uniquely human capacity to believe in shared fictions such as the value of money or the necessity for daily prayers that sets humans apart, allows millions of strangers to cooperate, but that also divides us into adversarial and sometimes murderous tribes. 

As symbol-using animals, we are able to convince ourselves of all kinds of ideas, from bible stories to trickle-down economics and act by the millions or hundreds of millions as if they were real, sometimes defending them with our lives (or all too frequently the lives of others). 

It's belief in a shared narrative that lets you go to an ATM anywhere in the world and retrieve a handful of paper for which a merchant will hand you actual food or clothing. But that same propensity to accept and believe in pervasive, communal myths also means you may not be able to share a Thanksgiving meal with friends or relatives on the other side of a political or ideological fence. 

We humans swim in a sea of memes, concepts, ideas and narratives, and we're usually as unaware of it as fish are of the ocean. 

In stark contrast, the coronavirus is completely immune to the web of narratives that we clever, cognitive, symbol-using humans weave within and around and ourselves. It has no ears so it doesn't hear that it will surely be defeated next week, month or year.  It has no eyes so it isn't deflected or deterred by what we see on our screens or read on the signs so proudly displayed at political rallies. It can't be seduced, bribed, bullied, browbeaten, bargained with or bought off. 

All the virus has is a genetic code that equips it to infect one person, multiply, turn that victim into a vector, sicken or kill, and spread. To the coronavirus we are not republicans or democrats, billionaires or beggars, sentient, sophisticated, symbol-using beings; we're just meat. That's the truth, and as Ghandi said, " . . . truth overrides all our plans."

As President Trump so succinctly pointed out, the coronavirus is what it is. Precisely because of that it has the potential to serve as a painful and costly yet vital teacher to us. It can be the "whack on the side of the head" that awakens us to reality, to the ground truth behind the crazy-making swarm of buzzwords, memes, slogans and contradictory narratives that befuddles us. 

I doubt that Trump, now personally suffering from the virus, will get the message. More than anyone else I know of, he seems to believe that he can impose his will on reality. He's spent his life mastering an armamentarium of manipulations that have worked to get him what he wants and where he wants to be.  My guess is that he has travelled too far down the ever-narrowing tunnel of narcissism to turn back. If he survives his bout with Covid-19, my guess is that he will brag about his superior genes and tell us how his resilience and toughness let him beat the virus.

However, that doesn't mean that the rest of us can't benefit from the raw reality that the virus makes us face. Beyond taking the by-now-well-known steps to protect ourselves and others from the virus, it can and should prod us to question our assumptions and preconceptions, to search for and be open to facts, to remember that there's an actual reality that we can strive to know and have to respect. 

It's worth noting that we have access to a highly developed methodology for doing that. It's called science. Scientists have spent centuries honing tools to track fact to its lair by stripping away as many as possible of the myths, wishes and cognitive biases we project onto it. They too spin their theories, but they constantly check them against reality. We need to listen to them, not just about the coronavirus, but about the increasingly urgent threats of climate destabilization and ecological collapse.

Rather than groping and wandering in a fog of myths and memes or choking on the smog of outright lies, let's use this implacable virus to spur us to at least start the hard climb to where we can breathe the cold but bracing air of truth.

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REA

UPON WHAT MEAT DOTH THIS OUR CEASAR FEED . . .

 "Upon what meat doth this our Caesar feed...?

The corrupting effect of power has been recognized for centuries:

Shakespeare's "Julius Caesar" metaphorically (and perhaps presciently) posed the question in terms of a tyrant's diet; with Lord Acton's famous aphorism adding the further warning that "absolute power corrupts absolutely."

                                                                   Julius Ceasar

Credit: Vatican Museum

Rarely, if ever, in the American experience have the consequences of unbridled power in the hands of an ego-driven, would-be tyrant, been as readily apparent as in the unhinged actions of Donald Trump in Tuesday night's very un-Presidential debate.

While the President's tendency toward personally denigrating opponents, demeaning rivals, dismissing critics, denying inconvenient facts and demanding 'absolute loyalty' from traditionally independent agencies and individuals has been well known, and even celebrated by his loyal followers, his behavior in the so-called debate reached a new and threatening pitch in Cleveland. It was as though any limits observed by normal individuals do not and should not be applied to President Trump. Bullying both his opponent and the moderator, Chris Wallace, and refusing to respect even the most minimal rules of courtesy or timekeeping, Trump verbally 'invaded' Mr. Biden's space, finding a way to loom over the proceedings much as he physically loomed over Hillary Clinton in their 2016 debate.

                                                     Donald Trump--official portrait

Credit: Gage Skidmore

Nearly four years into his presidency, having again and again been enabled in his assaults on accepted democratic norms by his political protectors in Congress, and following his success in avoiding any consequences from either the Special Counsel's investigation or his impeachment, Mr. Trump has clearly concluded that he really can say or do whatever he wants.

A somewhat shocking rhetorical assertion by a flamboyant candidate about being able to shoot someone on Fifth Avenue without losing political support has by now become a terrifying reality in the position of the most powerful and dangerous individual in the country, and possibly the world. Refusing to repudiate white supremacists while signaling a right-wing militia group to 'stand down and stand by' activates his rhetoric in real life and death terms.

Coupled with his repeated and direct assaults on the integrity of the upcoming election, while refusing to agree in advance to a peaceful transition of power should he lose, he is further raising doubts and stoking fears about the reliability of the most fundamental processes of democratic governance. Protected by enablers like Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell and increasingly by enforcers such as Bill Barr, the President's sense of invulnerability, omniscience and entitlement has only magnified.

Trump's willingness to use any and every resource, foreign and domestic, to gain power has never been in question from birtherism to the dark arts of social media manipulation at home to the use of American foreign policy to seek-out 'dirt' on his opponents abroad.

As President, with the enormous resources of the federal government at his disposal, he has shown he will fight to remain in office, seemingly without concern about any potential cost to the country.

What was most nakedly displayed on Tuesday's debate stage was, to borrow Shakespeare's terms, Trump's 'diet'. It was as disturbing an exposure as most Americans have ever experienced to the very consequences a ruthless drive for power can bring. It was exactly what our founders, political philosophers (as well as psychiatrists) have warned against over the years.

Power does corrupt, and a stark vision of its workings was delivered to all of us, isolated in our homes, without commercials.

-----

Les Adler

FIRST THEY CAME

Trump Hugging the Flag

Credit: nymag.com

First, they came for the news media, crying "fake news," promoting "alternative facts" and denying the reality of any unfavorable reports or evidence, and we did nothing.

Then they came for the "aliens" and immigrants, and though concerned, we did nothing.

Then they came for judges whose legal rulings prevented the separation and caging of migrant children at the border, and, though protesting, we did nothing.

Then they came for Homeland Security officials whose warnings of Russian election interference they rejected, and though surprised, we did nothing.

Then they came for the FBI Director who would not pledge complete loyalty, but it was 'complicated', and other concerns were cited, and we did nothing.

Then they came for the Attorney General whose required recusal opened the door for the Mueller Investigation, and who was no Roy Cohn, and, we did nothing.

Then they came for the Investigators themselves, accusing them of being "deep state"agents and labeling the investigation a "total hoax," and we did nothing.

Then they came for the "whistleblowers" who revealed corrupt dealings with a foreign power to undermine a potential political rival, and we, ultimately, did nothing.

Then they came for the Inspectors General in every Federal agency where questions were raised about administrative corruption, and we grumbled, but did nothing.

Then they came for the Public Health experts and officials, charging a "cabal" of scientists with undermining the President by promoting the "hoax" of a pandemic and the wearing of masks, and we've done nothing.

Then they came for peaceful Black Lives Matter protestors, smearing them as "subversives" and "anarchists" bent only on destruction, deserving of "retribution," and threatening to charge them with sedition, and we've done nothing.

Finally, they came for the Electoral System, claiming it to be "rigged," against them, suppressing voting, cutting short the census, shrinking the Postal Service, and undermining public faith in the integrity of the most basic mechanism of a functioning democracy, and so far, we've done..... 

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Les Adler

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This piece was inspired by Martin Niemöller, a prominent Lutheran minister and courageous opponent of Adolf Hitler. Niemöller survived seven years in Nazi concentration camps.

THE SLEEP OF REASON

The artist and Chinese political dissident, Ai Weiwei's recent warning that "Abandonment of rational thinking leads to a collapse in which fear and joy, ignorance and reason, all blow in the wind" is a terrifyingly accurately depiction of this moment in time with America's President and his followers denying reality and furiously tweeting in the dark.

The Sleep of Reason by Francisco Goya

Credit: Brooklyn Museum

Years of attacks on scientific knowledge, rationality and expertise of all kinds, particularly relating to critical health, environmental and climate-related issues have, tragically, set the stage for just such a destabilized and destructive state of mind. As a consequence, today, with a dangerous pandemic sweeping across the land, and one hundred and fifty thousand Americans already dead, even the most minimally-invasive and 'reasonable' steps to mitigate the disaster such as mask-wearing and social-distancing continue to be met with powerful surges of irrational fantasies and fears, leaving the rest of us, in Ai Weiwei's imagery, and Bob Dylan's prophetic words from the 1960's, "blowing in the wind."

So deep is this 'sleep' of un-reason that violations and distortions of ordinary rules of law and governance, institutional standards, decorum and even measurable facts seemingly pass unnoticed and un-opposed in the night. Swirling in a maelstrom of Orwellian double-speak, "alternative facts," cries of "fake news," conspiracy theories and a continuing flood of blatant lies and denials, the reasoned process of discourse essential to the functioning of democracy becomes muddied and impossible to sustain.

While the President's 'gut feelings' about untested cures and virus prevention are given equal weight against demonstrable scientific evidence, leading scientists and epidemiologists are demeaned and their voices silenced. Widespread national protests in favor of Black Lives and against police violence become distorted into exaggerated and menacing projections of 'anarchism' in the streets. At the point where the most fundamental democratic acts of census taking, voting and delivering the mail provoke radically fearful and polarized reactions, the narcotic has fully taken hold.

Reason seems to have been fully detached from the requirements of fact. Propaganda, passion and sheer misinformation are free to activate the latent fears and anxieties in the mind of a paralyzed and destabilized public. Faith in the electoral process erodes, and in an American first, a sitting President openly proclaims that he might not accept the results of an election that goes against him! 

In just such a moment, some threshold is crossed. It could be the point when the unprecedented intrusion of federal paramilitary units into American cities against the wishes of state and local officials in the name of preserving 'law and order' becomes more than just one more fleeting outrage in the news cycle. Perhaps it will be the moment when the fever breaks.

For there is a point when sleepers do awaken. At times they are shaken into consciousness by the very intensity of the fearful specters unleashed in their own minds; at others by encounters with the rough and unforgiving edge of external reality against which even their fantasies are powerless.

"El sueño de la razon prodúce monstros" (The sleep of reason produces monsters), the Spanish painter Francisco Goya inscribed in his famous etching more than two centuries ago during a similar collapse of rationality in the chaotic aftermath of the French Revolution. Yet the lesson of history is that, inevitably, the darkly demonic forms, wildly exaggerated images, fears and nightmares will fade in the bright light of day: reason reasserted. In a partial reframe of Dr. Martin Luther King's famous words: "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward reason."

lka

COUNTDOWN TIMER--HOW LONG UNTIL WE CAN VOTE TRUMP OUT?

HERE'S THE EXACT TIME 
TO ELECTION DAY, 2020

Timer credit: timeanddate.com

CHECK YOUR REGISTRATION.

IF YOU'RE NOT REGISTERED, DO IT NOW.

AND PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE VOTE!

COUNTDOWN TIMER: HOW MUCH LONGER DO WE HAVE TO PUT UP WITH DONALD TRUMP AS PRESIDENT?

Here's the exact time before our next president is inaugurated.

Goodbye Donald Trump!

Credit: Timeanddate.com

100,000 COVID-19 DEATHS IN US--MORE THAN HALF COULD HAVE BEEN PREVENTED

The United States just suffered its 100,000th documented death from the coronavirus.

The true number of coronavirus caused or related deaths in the US is probably closer to 130,000.

As more states and localities "open up," this toll of loss and grief will keep rising, and almost certainly will speed up.

". . . while the worst are full of passionate intensity."
(from The Second Coming by W. B.Yeats)Photo credit: Michael Vadon

As reported in the New York Times, researchers at Columbia University modeled the dynamics of the pandemic and calculated that if the United States had taken decisive action to limit the spread of the virus by March 1, just two weeks earlier than we belatedly did, 54,000 lives would have been spared.

To start to understand what this means, look at the front page of the New York Times listing the names of 1000 people from across the nation who have died from COVID-19. Then picture 53 more pages like that, memorializing 53,000 Americans who didn't need to die in this pandemic.

Then remember that as late as March 10, the deluded narcissist who promised to Make America Great Again was still blathering, "It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away."

Unfortunately, even amplified by Fox News and echoed by right-wing true believers, his magic words had no effect on this virulent, deadly virus. Reality inevitably trumps politics, polemics and magical thinking.

Please remember come November--54,000 needless deaths, and counting . . .

REA

Note: The US has 4.3% of the world's population. We've manged to produce 28.6% of COVID-19 deaths. This isn't the fault of China, the World Health Organization, Barack Obama or Joe Biden. The buck stops squarely on the desk in the oval office, no matter what the current resident of the White House would like us to believe.

Much more on how Trump made this pandemic far worse than it needed to be--Dan Benbow details 370 ways that Trump turned this into a man-made catastrophe. Read his piece here.

WHAT DIDN'T HE KNOW AND WHEN DIDN'T HE KNOW IT?

What didn't Trump know and when didn't he know it?

Concerning Trump in general and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in particular, the simple answer is that he knows nothing, always. Despite being "a very stable genius," perennial ignorance is his stock in trade. It lets him avoid responsibility across the board. Unlike President Truman, the buck never stops at Trump's desk (or if it does, like Macavity, Trump wasn't there. He never got the memo.)

Harry Truman, 1959--the buck stops here

Credit: Levan Ramishvili/flickr

Unfortunately for America, sometimes ignorance, especially arrogantly willful ignorance, has costs, real-world impacts that can't be erased by shifting blame to someone else (right now WHO's on first), smearing someone with a smarmy nickname, or filing a lawsuit.

MACAVITY'S NOT THERE

Credit: Pixabay

As I write this, 565,835 Americans have been sickened by the coronovirus, and 22,850 have died. That's more cases than the next three worst-hit countries combined, and more deaths than any other country. So much for MAGA and "we're number one."

Tragically, neither those deaths nor those yet to come will make a difference to Trump's core supporters; his approval ratings have ranged from 41 to 49 percent as the pandemic has raged.  Still, for those of us who at least try to live in the real world, it might be interesting to figure out what Trump could have known, and ought to have known, and when he chose to ignore it and go with his--also brilliant--gut.

We now know that multiple agencies were trying to alert Trump to the approaching tsunami starting in January. These included the National Security Council, Health and Human Services, the CDC, Homeland Security, the VA and the Pentagon--at least 10 high-level warnings between January 18 and February 25. Clearly enough of these early warnings got through to him to stimulate him to do what comes naturally to him--closing borders. On January 31 he banned most travelers coming from China. 

Domestically, however, Trump presented a very different face to the U.S. public. From January 20th through mid-March, Trump blatantly downplayed the seriousness of the pandemic. His consistent message was "no worries," "under control," and "it will disappear." Finally, in mid-March, and some six weeks too late, he began to take the pandemic seriously in terms of what should be done within the U.S.

What he could have known if he were capable of and willing to listen to experts, was that viruses like SARS-CoV-2 have the capacity to go viral--duh--for the number of people sickened or killed to increase exponentially.  If he had digested that bit of information, his native genius could have led him to the conclusion that days count. In a country the size of the US, putting effective control measures into place a week or two sooner could mean the difference between a few thousand deaths and a few hundred thousand deaths .

We can see this clearly if we compare New York and California. New York dithered while California took quick and serious steps to slow the spread of the virus.  As of 4/13/20, New York has registered 195,031 cases and suffered 10,056 deaths. California has just one-eighth as many cases, 23,428 and one-fifteenth as many deaths, 675. The contrast becomes even starker when you consider that California has twice the population of New York. So, per population, California has just one-sixteenth the number of cases and one-thirtieth he number of deaths. If California had failed to act as quickly and decisively as it did, 20,000 more people might have died.

What the experts tried to get across to Trump starting in January is that when you're dealing with the potentially exponential explosion of a fatal disease, there isn't room for half measures nor time for delay. Trump only heard what he wanted to hear, and reality steamrolled over all his magical thinking, political positioning and base-soothing blather to remind us that ignorance can be fatal. That makes Trump even more dangerous than we thought just a few months ago.

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REA

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6/28/20:  Just to add one more data point to the ongoing drama of what Trump didn't know and when didn't he know it, we now have the scandal of Russian intelligence paying a bounty to the Taliban for the murder of US soldiers. As usual, Trump missed the briefing, and the next briefing, and the one after that . . .

ONE MILLION CASES AND GROWING FAST

The official count of coronavirus or COVID-19 cases passed one million worldwide early today (4/2/20).** But that number is already out of date, since the count is growing by at least 70,000 per day. As I write this in the late afternoon, 20,000 more people have been diagnosed, and 6,000 have died. That's just today.

Wall Street in lockdown

(along with Main Street)

Credit: Dan Nguyen/Flickr

Tragically, the US is number one among the nations on this statistic.  Despite having less than 5 percent of the world's population, we've incurred nearly 25 percent of the COVID-19 cases, and 11 percent of the deaths. (One day after this posting, the US sped past a grim milestone--1000 COVID-19 deaths in a day).

Many factors are contributing to our unfortunate leadership in this area. Our healthcare system is focused on providing top-quality care to people who are well off or well insured, but lacks a comparable commitment to public health, In response to a problem that requires a  quick, coordinated, disciplined response, and a response that requires personal sacrifice, our national love of individualism and our more recent Ayn Randian valuation of putting oneself first certainly contributed.

Still, if we're going to assign responsibility for where we are today, an awful lot needs to go to our tweeter-in-chief, Donald Trump. As anyone whose memory has not been wiped clean by the Ministry of Truth knows. Trump treated the looming pandemic as--take your choice--a hoax, a Democrat scheme to discredit him, just like impeachment; as a threat to his re-election; as something totally under control; as an ordinary, relatively trivial event, like the flu; as another reason to close borders; as something that could be cleared away by Easter, and, even if it risked thousands of deaths, should not be allowed to upset the economy. With his narcissistic, impulsive and erratic leadership, the US was ill prepared, slow to respond, and still extremely spotty in dealing with this grave crisis.

By the way, the fact that even as thousands of Americans die every day--deaths that could have been prevented by prompt and well-informed leadership, Trump's approval ratings are approaching 50 percent suggests that the Ministry of Truth* is doing a bang-up job.

The big question is how we proceed from here. The US is still at the beginning of the epidemic. Nothing that we've done so far in the US has "flattened the curve." Instead, COVID-19 cases in the US are on a steeply rising exponential trajectory.  Experts tell us that social distancing--staying at home and avoiding as many contacts with other people as possible-- is crucial. So is hand washing. If everyone, sick, possibly sick or well, wears a face mask in public, that may help.

A separate, perhaps more crucial factor is testing as many people as possible in order to isolate people who are shedding the virus, along with tracking and isolating their contacts. Where this has been done, for example in South Korea, it has controlled the spread of the virus without shutting down the country, businesses and the economy. Again, unfortunately, the US lags far, far behind on testing.

What lies ahead is in our hands. A swift, strong, coordinated, nationwide attack on the virus can still save thousands or perhaps even hundreds of thousands of live. The two key questions are:

Will enough Americans wake up and do what's needed, or will half of them remain in the dark and asleep even as the plague surges towards them?

Will government, starting with Trump, get its act together, and in time?

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* For another example of Trump's Ministry of Truth revising history as we speak, click here.

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** The number of cases worldwide passed two million on 4/15/20. In other words, the global doubling time for the virus is around 13 days. We'll see if the enormous sacrifices that nations and individuals are making are making a difference. When will we suffer 4,000,000 cases?

REA

WHAT IF WE HAD A SOCIOPATHIC NARCISSISTIC AS PRESIDENT IN A TIME OF CRISIS?

If, God forbid, we had a sociopathic narcissist as President of the United States in a time of grave crisis, we might get a tweet like this:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The LameStream Media is the dominant force in trying to get me to keep our Country closed as long as possible in the hope that it will be detrimental to my election success. The real people want to get back to work ASAP. We will be stronger than ever before!

As usual with Trump's tweets, there's a huge amount of nastiness, divisiveness, us-vs-them-ism, and a whopper or two to unpack. However, let's just focus on ". . . in the hope that it will be detrimental to my election success."

In other words, what we do about the coronavirus pandemic should be determined by how it might impact him. That is pure narcissism.

Epidemiologists--experts who devote their lives to studying, understanding and modeling epidemics and pandemics--tell us that stringent steps now can beat this virus down to a manageable level in a month or two--as the Chinese and a few other countries have managed to do. That would allow our health system to continue to function, and researchers to develop treatments or a vaccine. This difficult-but-necessary choice might mean thousands of deaths in the US.

They also tell us that getting everyone back to work or "back to church" prematurely will let the virus expand exponentially. This is a concept Trump doesn't and probably can't understand, but maybe some of his followers can. Exponential means that today's 75,000 cases and 1000 deaths in a few months could be multiplied not by 10 or 100 or 1000, but possibly by 10,000. That's right, unleashed to rage unchecked through the US population, this coronavirus could kill 10,000,000 people.

You don't have to believe me. You can research this for yourself in these two crystal-clear articles:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Any normal person faced with the choice between his own needs and the potential death of millions of people would put all those lives first. But a sociopath wouldn't. Much less a sociopathic narcissist.

But we'd never elect someone like that as President. And even if we did, sensible people, the "adults in the room," would step in to protect us. After all, we have the Constitution, Congress and the  Courts--all those carefully crafted checks and balances--to save us. Right?

Right?

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REA