Posts
On April 27, I posted a piece noting that the US had suffered its one millionth documented COVID-19 case, and more than 56,000 deaths from this deadly virus. Today, 43 days later, the toll has more than doubled. We've now had 2.044 million people diagnosed, of whom 114,118 have died.
The good news is that it took 43 days for the number of cases to double. That's far slower than at the start of the pandemic, when numbers were doubling every few days.
As discussed in a previous post, we've flattened the curve and slowed the advance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus through lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, social distancing, mask-wearing, hand washing and all the other life-changing steps that we've taken. Making those drastic changes works and has saved huge numbers of lives, although, as we know, at enormous economic cost.
The bad news is that the virus is still circulating almost everywhere in the world (enormous kudos to New Zealand for having defeated the virus, at least for now). In addition, with just 2 to 5 percent of us now possibly protected by antibodies, the SARS-CoV-2 virus still has hundreds of millions of potential victims in the US; all it takes is a bit of exposure.
All of which raises the question--where do we go from here? Do we fling open the doors of the businesses and public spaces that have been closed, go back to work, and try to get back to something like our previous lives as quickly as possible? Or do we tiptoe back towards normalcy, cautiously opening up the economy and our lifestyles step by step, slowly enough and with enough testing and tracking to keep the virus contained? Or, more likely, stumble ahead with a confused and confusing state-by-state, city-by-city smorgasbord, with predictably mixed results?
We can be sure that Trump and his administration will push for a quick re-opening. Trump's eyes are fixated on the economy and its impact on his electability this November.
It's not hard to understand how vital it is for people to be able to have jobs to return to and to get back to work. Nor to feel the need to reclaim the freedoms and joys of our pre-coronavirus lives.
As these vital decisions are made, perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind is that once unleashed--as long as someone who has the virus is likely to pass it on to more than one other person--this virus can and will expand exponentially. This is a factor that is truly hard to grasp. We are used to things that change linearly. Push harder on the gas pedal and the car speeds up a bit, not by a factor of 10, 100 or 1000. Work more hours and you don't suddenly get rich. We're not used to things with the propensity to "go viral," where a small change can produce an enormous effect, or where a slight delay can mean the difference between 100 deaths and 100,000.
So step on the gas to get the economy moving again? It's a great idea, but not if we forget that the coronavirus is still there, still circulating, itching for another chance to explode.
REA
The good news is that it took 43 days for the number of cases to double. That's far slower than at the start of the pandemic, when numbers were doubling every few days.
As discussed in a previous post, we've flattened the curve and slowed the advance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus through lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, social distancing, mask-wearing, hand washing and all the other life-changing steps that we've taken. Making those drastic changes works and has saved huge numbers of lives, although, as we know, at enormous economic cost.
The bad news is that the virus is still circulating almost everywhere in the world (enormous kudos to New Zealand for having defeated the virus, at least for now). In addition, with just 2 to 5 percent of us now possibly protected by antibodies, the SARS-CoV-2 virus still has hundreds of millions of potential victims in the US; all it takes is a bit of exposure.
All of which raises the question--where do we go from here? Do we fling open the doors of the businesses and public spaces that have been closed, go back to work, and try to get back to something like our previous lives as quickly as possible? Or do we tiptoe back towards normalcy, cautiously opening up the economy and our lifestyles step by step, slowly enough and with enough testing and tracking to keep the virus contained? Or, more likely, stumble ahead with a confused and confusing state-by-state, city-by-city smorgasbord, with predictably mixed results?
We can be sure that Trump and his administration will push for a quick re-opening. Trump's eyes are fixated on the economy and its impact on his electability this November.
It's not hard to understand how vital it is for people to be able to have jobs to return to and to get back to work. Nor to feel the need to reclaim the freedoms and joys of our pre-coronavirus lives.
As these vital decisions are made, perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind is that once unleashed--as long as someone who has the virus is likely to pass it on to more than one other person--this virus can and will expand exponentially. This is a factor that is truly hard to grasp. We are used to things that change linearly. Push harder on the gas pedal and the car speeds up a bit, not by a factor of 10, 100 or 1000. Work more hours and you don't suddenly get rich. We're not used to things with the propensity to "go viral," where a small change can produce an enormous effect, or where a slight delay can mean the difference between 100 deaths and 100,000.
So step on the gas to get the economy moving again? It's a great idea, but not if we forget that the coronavirus is still there, still circulating, itching for another chance to explode.
REA
