EVEN THE VACCINATED NEED TO GUARD AGAINST VARIANT DELTA

Many of us who have been vaccinated against Covid-19 have at least started to lead more normal lives. Since getting my Pfizer shots, I've traveled by plane, stayed at a B&B and in friends' homes, eaten inside restaurants, and hugged (vaccinated) friends. It's felt great.

But from what I'm now reading, even if we're fully vaccinated, we may not be fully protected against the highly contagious Delta variant.

Credit: ISO-FORM LLC

From the laboratory, as reported in the prestigious journal Nature, we learn that one dose of either the Pfizer or the AstraZenaca vaccines "was poorly or not at all efficient against the Beta and Delta variants." Serum from just one person in 10 partially vaccinated people was able to neutralize the Delta variant. 

A bit more encouragingly, blood serum from 95 percent of people who'd gotten both shots of either vaccine did generate a neutralizing response. However, that response was just one-third to one-fifth as potent against Delta compared to Alpha.

And, in the outside world comes a report from Israel indicating that the Pfizer jab is just 64 percent effective in keeping vaccinated people from catching the Delta variant. The good news is that it appears to be 94 percent effective in preventing severe illness. Still, the actual numbers are not encouraging. In the recent two-week period surveyed, Israel recorded 1,528 new Covid cases. Of those, 1,271 were in fully vaccinated people. Thirty-seven people had to be hospitalized, of which 23 were fully vaccinated. Seventeen patients fell seriously ill, or which 11 had gotten both Pfizer shots.

More recent data from Israel, covering the week of June 27 through July 3 showed that a shockingly high percentage of new Covid cases--85 percent--hit fully vaccinated people. That's essentially the same percentage who are vaccinated in the whole Israeli population. At first glance this could indicate that the mRNA vaccines provide no protection against the delta variant. It's also possible that the 15 percent of the Israeli population who are nor vaccinated have already had Covid or are otherwise immune. In that case these data could indicate that vaccination provides no more protection than a prior bout with Covid. But in either case they clearly show that "breakthrough" infections from the delta variant are far from rare.

And an even more recent report from Israel finds that even two Pfizer jabs are just 39 percent effective in protecting people against the delta variant. The same report is quick to point out that the shots are 88 percent effective in preventing hospitalization and 91 percent effective against severe illness.

The Israeli numbers are described as preliminary and definitely are outliers compared to what some other countries are reporting. However, they clearly show that the Delta variant can sneak past the antibody defenses of a significant number of vaccinated individuals, corroborating what was seen in the lab.

If more proof were needed, an outbreak of the delta variant among staff and patients at a hospital in Calgary, Alberta, Canada provides it. Ten medical professionals who were fully vaccinated nonetheless came down with Covid-delta after attending a party. "It's quite a red flag, honestly," one Canadian health expert said.

It's reassuring that the vaccines still appear to be highly effective in preventing serious illness. Still, I don't want to risk even a mild case of Covid. So, until the Delta variant becomes much less prevalent, or until further data is significantly more reassuring, I'm dialing back from my more freewheeling behavior of the last few months.

"Normal" may be in sight, but, due to the highly contagious delta variant, it's not here yet.

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December's Deadly Forest Fire in Israel Confirms Climate Change Predictions in 2000 Report

Smoke from Mt. Carmel fire, from Haifa, Israel

A raging forest fire early this month killed 42 people, destroyed hundreds of homes, and consumed much of the forest that carpeted Mt. Carmel, near Haifa, Israel. The deadly fire was a predictable--and clearly predicted--effect of human caused global warming and climate change, according to the author of an official climate change report that was submitted to the U.N. in the year 2000.

The 2000 report said that rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases would create overall hotter and drier conditions around the Mediterranean, with delayed winter rains and a shorter rainy season, but also cause more extreme climate events such as heat waves, heavy downpours and floods. Combined, the predicted changes would significantly increase the risk of severe fires, like the one of December, 2010, threatening the survival of many forests in the Mediterranean region.

More about the 2000 report and the current comments of its co-author, Guy Pe'er at Ben Gurion University, at this Suite101 page.

In my opinion, it's long past time for climate change deniers worldwide to shut up. But even for those of us who have been following the climate change research and "debate" for years, it's time to stop piously saying that we need to act now to protect our children and grandchildren. We need to act now to protect ourselves.

Robert Adler
for the institute

avandia

This is the first in a series of "Road Sign" commentaries designed to bring under-noticed events that may turn out to be of global significance to public attention.

Road Signs:  The Middle East 

Recent largely unnoticed reports of what an Associated Press source labels an “unprecedented” public rebuke of Iranian President Ahmadinejad by the country’s supreme religious  authority,  Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, over a seemingly-minor domestic dispute, may, in fact, reflect a much more significant shift underway, not only in Iran’s political leadership but in its relations with the Western world. 

 With national elections scheduled for June 13, scarcely a month away, such public disapproval of one of Ahmadinejad’s actions by the ruling clerical authorities could well have a decisive effect in undermining the President’s remaining support within the Iranian power structure.

While the global economic downturn and consequent decrease in oil revenue have stirred public discontent, further tarnishing his public image, Ahmadinejad has, until this point, managed to retain the critical backing of Iran’s religious leadership.  The current dispute over his dismissal of the chief official responsible for managing the Hajj and Pilgrimage Organization, important though it may be in an Iranian domestic context, potentially provides the ruling ayatollahs the opportunity to demonstrate a new flexibility in foreign relations—the area in which Ahmadinejad has played a particularly provocative and controversial role .

What has changed most notably in recent months is the foreign policy of the United States, with strong signals being sent by the Obama Administration that it is interested in pursuing a new relationship with Iran following more than a quarter-century of mutual hostility.  In that context, Ahmadinejad, whatever his domestic virtues, is a definite liability, having positioned himself as an extreme hard-liner on relations not only with Israel—whose very legitimacy he has denied—but with the US and West whose values and policies he has repeatedly demeaned and attacked.

While the ayatollahs may share many of his opinions, and have clearly found it convenient to use him as a lightning-rod for international opprobrium, the diplomatic opening offered by the Obama Administration to initiate a new and less-rancorous relationship with the US and its Western allies may outweigh any lingering loyalty they may feel to Ahmadinejad himself.  In short, he may have outlived his usefulness.  And the upcoming election may provide the perfect opportunity to bring in new and less polarizing leadership.

Reading Iranian tea leaves is a notoriously difficult art, but in addition to this   largely unreported public scolding of Ahmadinejad, two other recent events: the announcement by Hamas leader, Khaled Meshal, that the organization had stopped firing rockets at Israel for the time being; and the sudden release of Iranian-American journalist, Roxana Saberi, should be taken as serious signs that Iran is rethinking its options on multiple fronts, and carefully testing the temperature of the international waters. 

In contrast to the previous events, however, Saberi’s case did capture public, media and diplomatic attention with both Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Obama denouncing the obviously trumped-up nature of the charges against her.  While important, and a likely further signal of Iranian interest in pursuing better relations with the United States, the Saberi case should not be seen in isolation.  Taken as one more step in the delicate diplomatic dance occurring between Iran and the United States, it is part of a much larger drama, which, if successful, may help defuse one of the world’s potentially most explosive situations.

Les Adler for The Institute