Showing posts with label enthusiasm. Show all posts
Showing posts with label enthusiasm. Show all posts

Monday, July 30, 2018

TRUMP'S WALL--A MONUMENT TO HATE AND FEAR

Whether it's based on politics, racism or both, Donald Trump is placing a huge bet on immigration, an issue he's weaponized to energize his base.  On Sunday, he tweeted, "I would be willing to 'shut down' government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall!"

As we know, Trump hates to back down, and reflexively doubles down instead. So it's not surprising that after having to back away from his, Attorney General Sessions and Homeland Security Secretary Nielsen's disastrous, immoral and indefensible family separation debacle, Trump is now doubling down with this renewed threat to shut down the government if Congress doesn't authorize and fund his Great Wall.

From sea to shining sea
Border wall meets the Pacific Ocean
Credit: © Tomas Castelazo, www.tomascastelazo.com / Wikimedia Commons 

No matter how most of us react to him, Trump is a master at stirring up his faithful followers. I'm sure he's thrilled that his tweet garnered 120 thousand likes within the first 24 hours.

"The United States will not be a migrant camp," he declaimed in June of this year, "and it will not be a refugee holding facility. It won't be. You look at what's happening in Europe, you look at what's happening in other places, we can't allow that to happen to the United States, not on my watch."

Given that Trump has previously referred to migrants as pouring in and infesting our country, his current tweet just builds on a foundation of fear and hate that he has been building for years (we can date it back at least as far as Trump's pushing the so-called Obama birther conspiracy starting in 2011).

Back in September, 2016, two months before the election, I posted a comment on a poll that showed that two thirds of Trump supporters were "extremely enthusiastic" about voting for him, while fewer than half of Hillary supporters were similarly enthused. The polling company commented, presciently as we all now know, that " . . . turnout in a close election will likely decide the winner of the race."

Three months from now, Americans will be voting for 35 of their senators, all of their representatives and the governors of 36 states. Who wins may well determine Trump's political future, the makeup of the Supreme Court for decades to come, and the direction America will take on immigration, womens' rights, workers' rights, climate and the environment, and crucial international issues such as trade, nuclear arms, war and peace.

Again, many of those races will be close, and turnout will likely decide the winners.

We can count on Trump keeping his core supporters--roughly 41 percent of voters--riled up and eager to go to the polls to protect the US from those invading armies of dangerous immigrants, or from the Democrats, who after all are the immigrants' dangerous supporters, or from the press--America's "biggest enemy," or from Iran, or from you name it.

It's up to the rest of us--the 53 percent who do not support him--to be equally enthusiastic. We need to be sure we are registered, register or re-register if we're not, and vote.

If we didn't learn that lesson in November of 2016, 2020 may just be too late.

And going back to Trump's wall--how long can anything built on fear and hate stand? Rather than waiting, watching and someday finding out, let's elect progressives who will make sure it never gets built.

REA

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Thursday, January 05, 2017

NATE SILVER'S 538 REPORTS THAT DEMOCRATS WHO DIDN'T VOTE COST CLINTON THE ELECTION

WHEN INDIFFERENCE MAKES A DIFFERENCE

On September 16 of last year I posted about pre-election polling research that showed that potential Trump voters were far more enthusiastic than potential Clinton voters. The pollsters warned that this enthusiasm gap could make the difference in a close race.

Unfortunately, that prediction turned out to be right on target. Today, Nate Silver's 538 published an analysis showing that Democrats and independents who stayed home rather than voting did make the difference. Thanks to them, as much as those who were enthusiastic enough to actually vote for Trump, we'll be inaugurating President Trump in a few days, with all that implies.

". . . Donald Trump probably would have lost to Hillary Clinton had Republican- and Democratic-leaning registered voters cast ballots at equal rates," concludes the author of the 538 analysis, Harry Enten.

Once again we're reminded that evil doesn't just happen because of the actions of bad people but, as Martin Luther King said, because of " . . . the appalling silence and indifference of the good people . . ."

Not voting counts too--this time a lot/Credit: nshepard

Friday, September 16, 2016

MOST TRUMP SUPPORTERS EXTREMELY ENTHUSIASTIC--OMG!

Polls show Clinton-Trump "enthusiasm gap."


According to the latest PDP tracking polls of likely voters, most supporters of Trump are highly enthusiastic about their candidate; far more than are excited about Hillary Clinton. 

PDP writes:


However, turnout in a close election will likely decide the winner of the race and, even though Mrs. Clinton definitely has the larger GOTV [get out the vote] operation, her supporters are markedly less enthusiastic than Trump voters. A whopping two-thirds (66%) say they are “Extremely Enthusiastic” about voting for Mr. Trump in November, while less than half (45%) say the same about voting for Mrs. Clinton. Another roughly one-fifth (22%) of Trump voters say they are “Very Enthusiastic” juxtaposed to 28% for Mrs. Clinton.


That makes 88% of Trump supporters either highly or extremely enthusiastic about him--so very likely to vote--vs. 73% for Clinton. We can expect to hear Trump bragging about that the next time he's in front of a TV camera.

But, more importantly, as PDP points out, " . . . turnout in a close election will likely decide the winner of the race . . . "

White nationalists are among Trump's enthusiastic supporters
Credit: Reuters;Chris Keane

Almost a century ago, in the aftermath of World War I, Irish poet William Butler Yeats wrote in The Second Coming . . .

Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Credit: Wonkette

Those of us who think that a a Trump presidency would be catastrophic in terms of human rights, the economy, the environment, jobs and climate--not to mention what having an angry, thin-skinned narcissist's finger on the nuclear trigger might mean--had best look to our own convictions and find our passion. As Hillary has pointed out, this isn't a reality show. In this election, it's our one and only reality that's at risk.

Note (January 5, 2017): It looks as though this post was right on target. Today, Nate Silver's 538 published an analysis entitled "Registered voters who stayed home probably cost Clinton the election.

It's no fun having been right in predicting a tragedy.