Tuesday, June 22, 2021

WERE PEOPLE OCCUPYING A CAVE IN MEXICO 30,000 YEARS AGO?

There are few scientific questions as controversial as when humans first entered the Americas. For decades widely-spread groups using the distinctive Clovis toolkit held that title with a date of first entry around 13,000 years ago. In recent years a few hotly contested findings have pushed that date back by a few thousand years--for example there's now generally accepted evidence of humans living at Monte Verde, Chile, near the tip of South America, 14,800 years ago. 

Now, new evidence from the depths of a cave near Puebla, Mexico may double the length of human occupation of the Americas--to 30,000 years or more. If these new dates and the signs of human activity associated with them hold up to the intense scrutiny they are sure to provoke, it will place humans in North America before rather than after the most recent glacial maximum, dramatically re-writing the prehistory of the Americas.


Coxcatlan Cave and its location--Credit Andrew Somerville/ISU/Latin American Antiquity

Paleoecologist Andrew Somerville, at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa, did not set out to make a potentially paradigm-breaking discovery. He and his colleagues, Isabel Casar (UNAM*) and Joaquin Arroyo-Cabrales (INAH**) just wanted to clarify the dating of the previously excavated and studied Coxcatlan Cave in the Tehuacan Valley of Mexico, with a focus on the development of agriculture.

Earlier researchers had excavated and described 28 distinct levels of deposits in the cave extending over thousands of years, most of which included signs of human habitation. The strata revealed a progression of material culture starting with slightly worked stone blades, scrapers and choppers through the development of carefully crafted stone tools, ceramics, woven materials, grinding stones, and early signs of agriculture.

Somerville and his colleagues used accelerator mass spectrometry (ACM) to perform precision carbon-14 dating on deer, hare and rabbit bones from various levels of the cave. While their findings corroborated the dating of the site's more recent levels, they were surprised when bones from the deepest deposits consistently dated to between 33,448 and 28,279 years before the present. 

Since respected previous researchers had found that those deep levels showed signs of human habitation--for example slightly worked stone tools including flint that had to be imported to the cave, and bones showing signs of heating and butchering, Somerville and his colleagues realized that they had stumbled upon a potentially revolutionary find.

"We weren't trying to weigh in on this debate, or even find really old samples," Somerville says. "We were surprised to find these really old dates at the bottom of the cave, and it means we need to take a closer look at the artifacts recovered from those levels."

Somerville is teaming up with Matthew Hill, also at Iowa State, to re-examine the stones and bones  from the deepest levels of the cave to see if they can prove or disprove that they were worked or modified by humans. "Determining whether the stone artifacts were products of human manufacture or it they were just naturally chipped stones would be one way to get to the bottom of this," Somerville says. Similarly, microscopic examination of the bone fragments may reveal proof of heating, or cut marks that could only come from stone tools wielded by human hands. 

Unfortunately, the Covid-19 pandemic has so far prevented Somerville and his colleagues from re-examining the bones. They think they will be able to access them during the summer of 2022. While the bones were carefully identified and categorized in the 1960s by Kent Flannery, a highly respected archaeologist, he did not study them at the level of detail Somerville plans. 

"Documenting and quantifying modifications to the bones, such as the patterns of breakage, the presence of cut marks, and thermal alterations to the bones were not part of the original study," Somerville explains. "Our plan is to return to the collection with a digital microscope and to systematically analyze each specimen to document this information. The goal is to ascertain whether or not humans had actually hunted and consumed these animals."

Somerville is also working with the Peabody Museum, in Andover, Massachusetts, to locate and re-study the possible stone tools from the deepest levels of the Coxcatlan Cave.

According to Somerville, Flannery and his colleague, the equally highly respected archaeologist Richard S. MacNeish, were fairly sure that the bones and stones from the deepest levels of the cave were left there by humans. As a result, Somerville thinks that its likely that further study with current techniques will confirm that. "It wouldn't surprise me if they were right all along," he writes. "However the possibility remains that these levels were natural accumulations of bones and stones, so I'm remaining skeptical but with an open mind until we have more data."

Somerville and his colleagues are thoroughly aware of how contentious a finding of a 30,000 year old human presence in the Americas would be, and accordingly have presented their current research very cautiously. "Because we very intentionally tried not to oversell our results, I think we have been able to avoid any serious criticism or backlash so far," he writes.

"So far" are the key words. American archaeology is notorious for the large number of sites at which researchers have found what they thought was evidence of human habitation dating back 20,000 years or more, only to find their work dissected, discounted and eventually dismissed by other researchers. 

While we eagerly await the next round of findings from professors Somerville and Hill, it's clear from the history of the field that they will have to produce extremely convincing proof before the needle marking when people first occupied the New World budges from its current position. But if it does swing from after to before the last glacial maximum, it would mean a revolution in our understanding of the peopling of the Americas.

REA

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You can access the original, open-source Latin American Antiquity article reporting these findings here

*Institute of Physics, National Autonomous University of Mexico

**Subdirectory of Laboratories and Academic Support, National Institute of of Anthropology and History


Monday, June 14, 2021

THE FUSE IS LIT FOR A POTENTIAL AI EXPLOSION

On the short list of potential existential threats to humanity is an explosive increase in the power of artificial intelligence (AI). 

The people warning us about this argue that the first AI to reach a superhuman level of general intelligence--often referred to as artifical general intelligence or AGI--could rapidly create an even smarter AI, which in turn could create a still smarter AI, etc. This exponential, chain-reaction increase in machine intelligence could quickly leave humanity in the dust, with unpredictable but quite possibly devastating consequences. 

Image credit: TOPBOTS

Skeptics  say that super-smart AGI still lies far in the future, if it will ever be achieved. They also assert that human-positive values could be built into any such system, or that just as we're able to tell current computers and AI systems what to do, we will be able to set goals for and control any artificial general intelligence.

We can reserve a discussion of those issues for a different post.** Today's note is stimulated by the achievement of one of the steps often cited as a lynchpin of a potential artificial intelligence explosion--an AI system designing even smarter "offspring."

James Vincent, writing in The Verge, reports that Google is now using AI to create the "floor plans" for next-generation tensor processing units, or TPUs, chips that Google builds to, among other things, power its most powerful AI systems. 

Reportedly, a new and more potent TPU architecture that would have taken a team of human designers months of intense work to design can now be generated in as many hours by an AI trained to view chip creation as a kind of game. 

Vincent optimistically writes, "The virtuous cycle of AI designing chips for AI looks like it's only just getting started. 

A pessimist might point out that what we've just seen is a speed-up of an important part of AI progress--by an AI--by a factor of more than 700. That's precisely why those pesky AI worry-warts foresee us ever-so-slow humans sooner or later being left wondering what just happened.

REA

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** You can view some related posts via these links:

zerospinzone: Advanced Artificial Intelligence--Friend or Foe

Article: Google's AlphaZero is now scary smart | OpEdNews

Article: Self-aware artificial intelligence? Coming soon to a robot near you | OpEdNews

zerospinzone: FORGET MOORE'S LAW -- NEVEN'S LAW RULES NOW

BLOWIN' IN THE WIND--A WHIFF OF GOOD CLIMATE NEWS

Good news is scarce these days, so I'm thrilled to get to report that in the first three months of this year, nearly all--99.7 percent--of new electricity generating capacity in the US came from solar and wind. Once-and-hopefully-never-again King Coal accounted for a measly 0.2 percent of new capacity. 

                                        Wind Farm--Credit USFWS/Joshua Winchell


That brings renewable's percentage of US power generation capacity up to 24.7 percent of the total.

Actual power generation for the first quarter was comparable--21.6 percent of all power generated. March was even better--25.5 percent of the electricity that went into the US grid came from renewables.

Needless to say, the US and the rest of the world need to phase out climate destabilizing energy sources and replace them with renewables as quickly as possible.

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These data come from FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

REA/6/14/21, 6/16/21



Thursday, June 03, 2021

SO CLOSE TO THE ERADICATION OF POLIO...

 We're nearly half way through 2021. So far this year, there have been just two cases of polio caused by the wild polio virus, one in Afghanistan and one in Pakistan. The decades-long international effort to eradicate this crippling and deadly disease is tantalizingly close to success. The wild polio virus, once endemic globally, now hangs on in just those two conflict-ridden countries.

The oral polio vaccine--
inexpensive, effective
but can revert to a virulent form
Credit: Michael Tsegaye/Flickr


Unfortunately, there have been substantially more--nearly 100--polio cases caused when the oral polio vaccine mutates back to a virulent form.

The polio end game will require the gradualy replacement of the oral polio vaccine with the inactivated polio vaccine, which is incapable of causing poliomyelitis. 

Polio will officially be declared eradicated when three years have passed without any documented polio cases caused by the wild polio virus. That will mark just the second human disease that we have been able to eradicate, the first being smallpox, declared eradicated in 1980.