How hot will it get later this century? So hot that we'll need new terms.

 A new study paints a grim climate picture for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). 

As reported in the prestigious, peer-reviewed journal NPJ/Climate and Atmospheric Science, first-of-their-kind regional climate models project prolonged, life-threatening heat waves impacting up to 600 million people in the MENA region if global warming is not brought under control. In a "business-as-usual" scenario, temperatures are projected to soar to 56 degrees Celsius (133 degrees Fahrenheit) and remain at such intolerable levels for days or weeks at a time in the second half of this century. 

We need new terms to categorize such intense, extended and deadly heat events. "Our results for a business-as-usual pathway indicate that especially in the second half of this century unprecedented super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves will emerge," says George Zittis, first author of the new study.

The authors point out that by mid-century, 90 percent of the population of the MENA region are expected to be living in cities. Cities act as "heat islands" that intensify and prolong extreme heat events. That means that a high percentage of the regions projected population of one billion will face such life-threatening conditions almost every year towards the end of the century.

"For the following decades and towards the end of the 21st century, thermal conditions in the region are projected to become particularly harsh as the so-far-unobserved and thus unprecedented "super-extreme" and "ultra-extreme" events are projected to become commonplace," the authors write.

Daily heat wave magnitude averages from 1980s projected through 2100

Credit: Zittis et al./NPJ/Climate and Atmospheric Science

If the world continues on its current business-as-usual path, the Middle East and North Africa will clearly be at risk, not just of increased human mortality, but of disruption of work, agriculture and daily life. Since the most extreme conditions this study foresees have not yet been experienced, how much personal, social, economic and political disruption they will cause remains to be seen. However, like the heat projections, those disruptions are likely to be extreme, super-extreme or ultra-extreme. And, as we know, problems that start in the Middle East do not stay in the Middle East.

If world leaders needed any more motivation to turn the looming climate catastrophe around now, here it is.

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REA/4-29-21